Profitability And Market Stability: Fundamentals And Technical Trading Rules
Traders in this simulation of an asset market endogenously select from available information sources in order to maximize expected profits. The information options include two noisy signals of future dividends (the fundamentals) and a simple trend following technical trading rule. Traders use the information for constructing a portfolio to hold through to the next period, consisting of a risky and a risk free asset . Due to free riding on information conveyed in the market price, the technical trading rule proves to be profitable when the market is near the fundamental equilibrium. Popularity of the technical trading rule alters the price dynamics and can move the price away from this equilibrium.The tradersÆ selection of an information source is modeled as a randomized discrete choice. The greater the expected relative benefit of an information source, the greater the probability of its selection. The intensity of choice parameter sets the tradersÆ sensitivity to expected benefits and plays a major role in determining market dynamics. In forming expected benefits of the fundamental information, traders are forward looking using current market observables. The technical trading rule is evaluated based on past performance. Once traders have selected an information source, demand for the risky asset is aggregated within each information source. A price is determined to clear the market.Depending on the intensity of choice setting, computer simulations of the market can result in growth in the popularity of the technical trading rule following a series of correct signals. The larger population of technical traders causes distortions in the market price which may lead to price bubbles. The price bubble contributes to the popularity of the trading rule while simultaneously moving the market further from the fundamental equilibrium. The eventual collapse of the bubble creates windfall profits for the remaining population of fundamental traders while the losses reduce the popularity of the technical trading rule. The market returns to the fundamental equilibrium allowing the cycle to begin again.Two self-fulfilling regimes exist, each resulting in different market dynamics. If traders believe that the distortionary impact the technical traders excerpt on the market price will continue, then the decision concerning information selection and the trading behavior of those who choose to rely on the fundamental information both serve to perpetuate the trading rule and its influence on price. Alternately, if the traders believe that any distortions will soon dissipate, then traders will be attracted to fundamental information when they suspect a deviation from fundamentals. Those selecting to use fundamental information will trade aggressively to exploit the distortion. These behaviors forces the price back towards the fundamental equilibrium. The market has a decreased tendency to develop large price bubbles in the latter regime, but smaller high frequency price oscillations continue. Current efforts include endogenizing the tradersÆ beliefs about which regime is in effect.A second observation addresses the evolutionary development of successful technical trading rules. In a market consisting exclusively of fundamental traders, the only type of technical trading rule which is able to exploit price patterns are trend following rules such as those initially examined. The distortions in price caused by the popularity of a trend following rule creates an environment in which different categories of rules may be useful. A price-dividend rule is examined. Though useless when the market is exclusively fundamental traders, the price dividend rule proves profitable in the market experiencing the distortions caused by the trend following rules.
|Date of creation:||05 Jul 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain|
Fax: +34 93 542 17 46
Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1982. "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: A mean-variance example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-312, April.
- HELLWIG, Martin F., "undated". "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: a mean-variance example," CORE Discussion Papers RP 480, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, "undated". "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
- William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
- Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1984. "Rational expectations equilibrium: An alternative approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 116-129, October.
- Rendleman, Richard Jr. & Jones, Charles P. & Latane, Henry A., 1982. "Empirical anomalies based on unexpected earnings and the importance of risk adjustments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 269-287, November.
- J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
- J. Doyne Farmer, 1998. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Research in Economics 98-12-117e, Santa Fe Institute.
- J. Doyne Farmer, 1999. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 651, Society for Computational Economics.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
- LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
- Arthur, W.B. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R., 1997. "Time Series Properties of an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9725, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)