An alternative business cycle dating procedure for South Africa
This paper applies a Markov switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to 114 of the 186 variables used in the dating of the business cycle by the South African Reserve Bank. PCA establishes the co-movement in the dataset to calculate the reference turning points over the period 1982 to 2009. The large dataset broadens the information set available to date the turning points. The number of factors are chosen using a modified Bai and Ng (2002) method. The Markov switching model is also applied to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as this is a commonly used variable to date the business cycle in the literature and provides a benchmark to the factor model. Our results indicate that the factor model accurately dates the South African business cycle and compares favourably to the SARB dating.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allan P. Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2001.
"What Is A Recession?: A Reprise,"
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
095, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
- Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002.
"The European Business Cycle,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
- du Plessis, S.A., 2006.
"Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa,"
Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-774, September.
- Stan du Plessis, 2005. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Working Papers 10, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2010. "Improved penalization for determining the number of factors in approximate factor models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1806-1813, December.
- Canova, Fabio, 1999.
"Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
- Fabio Canova, 1994. "Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?," Economics Working Papers 113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Willem Boshoff, 2005.
"The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle,"
02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
- Wh Boshoff, 2005. "The Properties Of Cycles In South African Financial Variables And Their Relation To The Business Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 694-709, December.
- Zenon Kontolemis G., 1999.
"Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model,"
IMF Working Papers
99/107, International Monetary Fund.
- Kontolemis, Zenon G, 2001. "Analysis of the US Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 47-61, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, December.
- Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
- Forni, Mario, et al, 2001.
"Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C62-85, May.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Hugo Nel*, 1996. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Economic Activity in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 64(3), pages 151-157, 09.
- Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989.
"New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators,"
178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Phillips, Kerk L., 1991. "A two-country model of stochastic output with changes in regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 121-142, August.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Tanton)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.