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The Environmental Kuznets Curve: some really disturbing Monte Carlo evidence





The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis posits an inverse U- shaped relation between environmental pollution and income. The empirical literature has largely ignored the time series properties of the data used to test the EKC. This paper uses Monte Carlo experiments to analyse whether the order of integration influences the EKC empirical strategy. We show that if the variables used are I(1), the results will spuriously confirm the EKC hypothesis in 40% of the cases. Furthermore, accepting the EKC also influences the critical values for the rejection of no cointegration in the Engle- Granger framework.

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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 04/242.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:04/242
Contact details of provider: Postal: Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent
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  1. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
  2. Stern , David I., 1998. "Progress on the environmental Kuznets curve?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 173-196, May.
  3. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
  5. Junsoo Lee & John List, 2004. "Examining Trends of Criteria Air Pollutants: Are the Effects of Governmental Intervention Transitory?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(1), pages 21-37, September.
  6. David I. Stern & Tony Auld & Michael S. Common & Kali K. Sanyal, 1998. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur?," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9804, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
  7. William Harbaugh & Arik Levinson & David Wilson, 2000. "Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-07, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  8. Perman, Roger & Stern, David I., 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), September.
  9. Shafik, Nemat, 1994. "Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 757-73, Supplemen.
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