Fragile States, Commodity Booms And Export Performance: An Analysis Of The Sub-Saharan African Case
Sub-Saharan Africa's export performance over recent decades has typically been por-trayed as poor compared to other regions in developing countries. This paper takes a new look at the record, using data on the volume rather than the value of African ex-ports. When analysed in volume terms a different picture of African export performance emerges. Despite being confronted by sharply declining prices, between 1995-2001 Afri-can exports expanded by an average of 5.9 percent annually. The picture changes quite significantly during the post-2002 commodity price boom period, with increases of 5.2 per cent per annum in average volumes. By using a dynamic panel of 36 Sub-Saharan countries, the aim of this paper is to analyse this apparent paradox, using data available from UNCTAD. Specifically, we investigate the price-elasticity response of African ex-porters in the light of dramatically shifting unit prices. In the context of the EDR project, we also specifically look at the question of whether countries classified as ´fragile states´ have been especially disadvantaged in terms of their export performance.
|Date of creation:||29 Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Convento, Via delle Fontanelle, 19, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy|
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- W Naudé, 2000. "The Determinants of South African Exports: An Econometric Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(2), pages 103-113, 06.
- Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, 09.
- Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2001.
"The Effects of Trade Liberalisation on Imports in Selected Developing Countries,"
Studies in Economics
0110, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
- Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "Comesa and Sadc; Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund.
- Amelia Santos-Paulino & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation And Economic Performance In Developing Countries - Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F1-F3, 02.
- Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997.
"The impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply: a synthesis of available results,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(1), March.
- Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997. "The impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply: a synthesis of available results," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 17-34, March.
- David T. Coe & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1998.
"North-South Trade; Is Africa Unusual?,"
IMF Working Papers
98/94, International Monetary Fund.
- Måns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Gabriele, Alberto, 1994. "Price elasticity of Central American agricultural exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
- A. U. Santos-Paulino, 2002.
"Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries,"
Journal of Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 140-164.
- Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2000. "Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 0012, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Clarke, George R.G., 2005. "Beyond tariffs and quotas : why don't African manufacturers export more?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3617, The World Bank.
- Andrew MOLD, 2004. "Fdi And Poverty Reduction: A Critical Reappraisal Of The Arguments," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 20, pages 91-122.
- Irfan ul HAQUE, 2004. "Commodities Under Neoliberalism: The Case Of Cocoa," G-24 Discussion Papers 25, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Farhad Noorbakhsh & Alberto Paloni, 1998. "Structural adjustment programmes and export supply response," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 555-573.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990.
"Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- Augstin Kwasi Fosu, 2003. "Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 68-83.
- Oliver Morrissey, 2005. "Imports and Implementation: Neglected Aspects of Trade in the Report of the Commission for Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 1133-1153.
- World Bank, 2005. "Economic Growth in the 1990s : Learning from a Decade of Reform," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7370, October.
- Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Whither the Terms of Trade? An Elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 461-81, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RSCAS web unit)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.