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Are Probabilities Used in Markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Epstein, L.G.

Abstract

Working in a complete-markets setting, a property of asset demands in identified that is inconsistent with the investor's preference being based on probabilities. In this way, a market counterpart of the Ellsberg Paradox is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Epstein, L.G., 1999. "Are Probabilities Used in Markets?," RCER Working Papers 464, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    • Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:464
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    File URL: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_464.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kin Chung Lo, 2000. "Rationalizability and the savage axioms," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 727-733.
    2. Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
    3. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    4. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    5. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    6. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-780, July.
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    2. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon & CNRS-EUREQua & Universite Paris I, 2002. "Ellsberg`s 2-Color Experiment, Bid-Ask Behavior and Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 114, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Zambrano, Eduardo, 2005. "Testable implications of subjective expected utility theory," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 262-268, November.
    4. Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
    5. Echenique, Federico & Imai, Taisuke & Saito, Kota, 2019. "Decision Making under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study in Market Settings," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 197, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    6. Xiao Luo & Yi-Chun Chen, 2004. "A Unified Approach to Information, Knowledge, and Stability," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 472, Econometric Society.
    7. Federico Echenique, 2020. "New Developments in Revealed Preference Theory: Decisions Under Risk, Uncertainty, and Intertemporal Choice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 299-316, August.
    8. Mukerji, Sujoy & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2003. "Ellsberg's two-color experiment, portfolio inertia and ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 299-316, June.
    9. Chambers, Christopher P. & Gerasimou, Georgios, 2024. "Non-diversified portfolios with subjective expected utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    10. Chambers, Christopher P. & Liu, Ce & Martinez, Seung-Keun, 2016. "A test for risk-averse expected utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 775-785.
    11. Pierpaolo Angelini, 2023. "Probability Spaces Identifying Ordinal and Cardinal Utilities in Problems of an Economic Nature: New Issues and Perspectives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-22, October.
    12. Charles Gauthier & Raghav Malhotra & Agustin Troccoli Moretti, 2022. "Finite Tests from Functional Characterizations," Papers 2208.03737, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    13. Stefania Minardi & Andrei Savochkin, 2017. "Characterizations of Smooth Ambiguity Based on Continuous and Discrete Data," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(1), pages 167-178, January.
    14. Carmela Mauro, 2008. "Uncertainty Aversion Vs. Competence: An Experimental Market Study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 301-331, March.
    15. Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2004. "A theory of quantifiable beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 515-546, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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