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Ellsberg`s 2-Color Experiment, Bid-Ask Behavior and Ambiguity

  • Sujoy Mukerji
  • Jean-Marc Tallon

Results in this note relate the observation of an interval of prices at which a DM strictly prefers to hold a zero position on an asset (termed `bid-ask behavior`) to the DM`s perception of the underlying payoff relevant events as ambiguous, as the term is defined in Epstein and Zhang (2001). The connection between bid-ask behavior and ambiguity is established without invoking a parametric preference form, such as the Choquet expected utility or the max-min multiple priors model. This allows us to draw an observable distinction between bid-ask behavior that may arise purely due to first-order risk aversion type effects, such as those which could arise even if preferences were probabilistically sophisticated, and the bid-ask behavior that involve ambiguity perceptions.

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File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper114.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 114.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:114
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  1. Epstein Larry G. & Wang Tan, 1995. "Uncertainty, Risk-Neutral Measures and Security Price Booms and Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 40-82, October.
  2. Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  3. Dekel, Eddie & Lipman, Barton L & Rustichini, Aldo, 2001. "Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 891-934, July.
  4. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  5. Epstein, Larry G., 2000. "Are Probabilities Used in Markets ?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 86-90, March.
  6. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Mukerji, Sujoy, 1998. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Contractual Form," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1207-31, December.
  8. Hong Chew Soo & Epstein Larry G. & Wakker Peter, 1993. "A Unifying Approach to Axiomatic Non-expected Utility Theories: Correction and Comment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 183-188, February.
  9. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  10. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
  11. Machina, Mark J, 2001. " Payoff Kinks in Preferences over Lotteries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 207-60, November.
  12. Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
  13. Machina, Mark J, 2000. "Payoff Kinks in Preferences Over Lotteries," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7vn7d2hs, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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