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Are Probabilities Used in Markets ?

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  • Epstein, Larry G.

Abstract

Working in a complete-markets setting, a property of asset demands in identified that is inconsistent with the investor's preference being based on probabilities. In this way, a market counterpart of the Ellsberg Paradox is provided.
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Suggested Citation

  • Epstein, Larry G., 2000. "Are Probabilities Used in Markets ?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 86-90, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:91:y:2000:i:1:p:86-90
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
    2. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    3. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    4. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-780, July.
    5. Kin Chung Lo, 2000. "Rationalizability and the savage axioms," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 727-733.
    6. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mukerji, Sujoy & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2003. "Ellsberg's two-color experiment, portfolio inertia and ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 299-316, June.
    2. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon & CNRS-EUREQua & Universite Paris I, 2002. "Ellsberg`s 2-Color Experiment, Bid-Ask Behavior and Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 114, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Chambers, Christopher P. & Liu, Ce & Martinez, Seung-Keun, 2016. "A test for risk-averse expected utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 775-785.
    4. Zambrano, Eduardo, 2005. "Testable implications of subjective expected utility theory," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 262-268, November.
    5. Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
    6. Federico Echenique & Taisuke Imai & Kota Saito, 2019. "Decision Making under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study in Market Settings," Papers 1911.00946, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    7. Xiao Luo & Yi-Chun Chen, 2004. "A Unified Approach to Information, Knowledge, and Stability," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 472, Econometric Society.
    8. Federico Echenique, 2020. "New Developments in Revealed Preference Theory: Decisions Under Risk, Uncertainty, and Intertemporal Choice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 299-316, August.
    9. Christopher P. Chambers & Georgios Gerasimou, 2023. "Non-diversified portfolios with subjective expected utility," Papers 2304.08059, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    10. Pierpaolo Angelini, 2023. "Probability Spaces Identifying Ordinal and Cardinal Utilities in Problems of an Economic Nature: New Issues and Perspectives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Raghav Malhotra, 2022. "(Functional)Characterizations vs (Finite)Tests: Partially Unifying Functional and Inequality-Based Approaches to Testing," Papers 2208.03737, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    12. Stefania Minardi & Andrei Savochkin, 2017. "Characterizations of Smooth Ambiguity Based on Continuous and Discrete Data," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(1), pages 167-178, January.
    13. Carmela Mauro, 2008. "Uncertainty Aversion Vs. Competence: An Experimental Market Study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 301-331, March.
    14. Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2004. "A theory of quantifiable beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 515-546, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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