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Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long Run

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  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Michael Kuehl

Abstract

This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potential long-run relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals? Secondly, do Forex interventions support the adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium value? Our overall results suggest that taking periods of interventions into account within a monetary model does improve the goodness of fit of an identified longrun relationship to a significant degree. Furthermore, Forex interventions increase the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium in some periods, particularly in periods of coordinated forex interventions. Our results indicate that only coordinated interventions seem to stabilize the dollar-yen exchange rate in a long-run perspective. This is a novel contribution to the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kuehl, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long Run," ROME Working Papers 201307, ROME Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201307
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural exchange rate models; cointegration; intervention analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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