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Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long Run

  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Michael Kuehl

This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potential long-run relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals? Secondly, do Forex interventions support the adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium value? Our overall results suggest that taking periods of interventions into account within a monetary model does improve the goodness of fit of an identified longrun relationship to a significant degree. Furthermore, Forex interventions increase the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium in some periods, particularly in periods of coordinated forex interventions. Our results indicate that only coordinated interventions seem to stabilize the dollar-yen exchange rate in a long-run perspective. This is a novel contribution to the literature.

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File URL: http://www.rome-net.org/RePEc/rmn/wpaper/rome-wp-2013-07.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Paper provided by ROME Network in its series ROME Working Papers with number 201307.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201307
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.rome-net.org

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