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Determinantes de la Inflación Reciente en Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • José Luis Evia Vizcarra

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Armando Méndez Morales

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

Luego de un período largo, en el que la inflación parecía dominada (alcanzando una tasa anual menor al 1%, a principios de la presente década), esta ha comenzado a resurgir. Simultáneamente, el crecimiento de la oferta de dinero se ha acelerado, alcanzando elevadas tasas. Si bien la mayor oferta de dinero explica parte de la inflación, queda una parte importante de la inflación que no puede ser atribuida a esta variable. Ajustando un modelo neo-keynesiano, la brecha del producto no contribuye a explicar la inflación en los años más recientes. No obstante, si cambiamos la brecha del producto por el crecimiento del gasto del sector público, encontramos que la relación entre esta variable y la inflación es estadísticamente significativa. Otras variables que resultan estadísticamente significativas para explicar la inflación son el tipo de cambio (en una formulación cuadrática), y la inflación internacional. El documento plantea una interpretación de los orígenes de la inflación según estas líneas. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC

Suggested Citation

  • José Luis Evia Vizcarra & Armando Méndez Morales, 2008. "Determinantes de la Inflación Reciente en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 8/2008, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2008_008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
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