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Pollution Permits and the Evolution of Market Structure

  • Stephen P. Ryan

    (MIT)

  • Mar Reguant

    (MIT)

  • Meredith Fowlie

    (UC-Berkeley)

We explore the long run dynamic implications of subjecting an imperfectly competitive industry to market-based pollution regulation. We are particularly interested in understanding how the allocation of emissions permits in a cap-and-trade program can influence the evolution of a trade exposed oligopolistic industry. Using two decades of panel data on the US Portland cement industry, we estimate a fully dynamic model of firms’ strategic entry, exit, production, and investment decisions. We then use the model to simulate counterfactual outcomes under three general classes of allocation regimes: auctioning, grandfathering, and contingent updating. We find that the dynamic evolution of market structure can vary significantly across the policy scenarios we consider. We quantify the overall costs of achieving desired emissions reductions and the distribution of those costs.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 1440.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1440
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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  1. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-66, March.
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  3. Stephen Ryan, 2005. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Working Papers 0510, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
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  7. Bushnell, James & Chen, Yihsu, 2009. "Regulation, Allocation and Leakage in Cap-And-Trade Markets for CO2," Staff General Research Papers 13131, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Neuhoff, K. & Grubb, M. & Keats, K., 2005. "Impact of the allowance allocation on prices and efficiency," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0552, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Jans, Ivette & Rosenbaum, David I., 1997. "Multimarket contact and pricing: Evidence from the U.S. cement industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 391-412, May.
  10. Damien Demailly & Philippe Quirion, 2006. "CO2 abatement, competitiveness and leakage in the European cement industry under the EU ETS: Grandfathering vs. output-based allocation," Post-Print halshs-00639327, HAL.
  11. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
  12. Christian Habermann & Fabian Kindermann, 2007. "Multidimensional Spline Interpolation: Theory and Applications," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 153-169, September.
  13. Daniel L. Millimet & Santanu Roy & Aditi Sengupta, 2009. "Environmental Regulations and Economic Activity: Influence on Market Structure," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 99-118, 09.
  14. Andrew Sweeting, 2004. "Market Power in the England and Wales Wholesale Electricity," Working Papers 0413, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  15. Steven L. Puller, 2007. "Pricing and Firm Conduct in California's Deregulated Electricity Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 75-87, February.
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