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Where is Australian Power headed in 2035?

Author

Listed:
  • Lynette Molyneaux

    () (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Craig Froome

    () (Business School, University of Queensland)

  • Liam Wagner

    () (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

Australia’s plentiful supply of coal has defined the structure of its stationary energy power generation and consumption. Economies of scale derived from large coal-fired generation have enabled the supply of affordable electricity and encouraged investment in power intensive industries. As we look to 2035, Australia’s plentiful supply of coal seam gas could dominate the future structure of its power economy but it will be subject to the vagaries of international energy price volatility and environmental costs if carbon price is applied globally. Uncertain electricity prices as a result of global energy and carbon price volatility will discourage electricity and capital intensive investment in Australia. We seek to understand the consequences of a gas-centric policy environment on Australian power in 2035.We conduct scenario analysis of the options facing the stationary energy industry by modelling the provision of electricity in 2035. In particular we seek to understand how the roll-out of large-scale solar thermal and solar photovoltaic power would alter the structure of the power economy and its ability to sustain energy-intensive industry. In order to facilitate the comparative analysis, we use a resilience index as a strategic, top down barometer of power economy performance because it allows a systematic and rational appraisal of the relative efficiency, diversity and security of power systems. Our findings provide an indicator of how energy-intensive industries will view investment in Australia over the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner, 2012. "Where is Australian Power headed in 2035?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 10-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:10-2012
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    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/docs/workingpapers/2012-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Molyneaux, Lynette & Wagner, Liam & Froome, Craig & Foster, John, 2012. "Resilience and electricity systems: A comparative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 188-201.
    2. Molyneaux, Lynette & Froome, Craig & Wagner, Liam & Foster, John, 2013. "Australian power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 215-221.
    3. Moreno, Blanca & López, Ana J. & García-Álvarez, María Teresa, 2012. "The electricity prices in the European Union. The role of renewable energies and regulatory electric market reforms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 307-313.
    4. Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2012. "Australian Power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
    6. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Molyneaux, Lynette & Froome, Craig & Wagner, Liam & Foster, John, 2013. "Australian power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 215-221.
    2. Burke, Kerry B., 2014. "The reliability of distributed solar in critical peak demand: A capital value assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 103-110.
    3. Gui, Emi Minghui & Diesendorf, Mark & MacGill, Iain, 2017. "Distributed energy infrastructure paradigm: Community microgrids in a new institutional economics context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1355-1365.
    4. Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2012. "Australian Power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. repec:kap:jbioec:v:19:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10818-017-9246-y is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Riesz, Jenny & Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain, 2015. "Assessing “gas transition” pathways to low carbon electricity – An Australian case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 794-804.
    7. Byrnes, Liam & Brown, Colin, 2015. "Australia’s renewable energy policy: the case for intervention," MPRA Paper 64977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain F., 2015. "Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 43-56.
    9. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2017. "Economic and investment models for future grids: Final Report Project 3," MPRA Paper 78866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Wagner, Liam & Molyneaux, Lynette & Foster, John, 2014. "The magnitude of the impact of a shift from coal to gas under a Carbon Price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 280-291.
    12. Elliston, Ben & MacGill, Iain & Diesendorf, Mark, 2014. "Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 196-204.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    RESILIENCE; ELECTRICITY; RENEWABLE ENERGY; DISTRIBUTED GENERATION;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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