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Where is Australian Power headed in 2035?

  • Lynette Molyneaux

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Craig Froome

    ()

    (Business School, University of Queensland)

  • Liam Wagner

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

Australia’s plentiful supply of coal has defined the structure of its stationary energy power generation and consumption. Economies of scale derived from large coal-fired generation have enabled the supply of affordable electricity and encouraged investment in power intensive industries. As we look to 2035, Australia’s plentiful supply of coal seam gas could dominate the future structure of its power economy but it will be subject to the vagaries of international energy price volatility and environmental costs if carbon price is applied globally. Uncertain electricity prices as a result of global energy and carbon price volatility will discourage electricity and capital intensive investment in Australia. We seek to understand the consequences of a gas-centric policy environment on Australian power in 2035.We conduct scenario analysis of the options facing the stationary energy industry by modelling the provision of electricity in 2035. In particular we seek to understand how the roll-out of large-scale solar thermal and solar photovoltaic power would alter the structure of the power economy and its ability to sustain energy-intensive industry. In order to facilitate the comparative analysis, we use a resilience index as a strategic, top down barometer of power economy performance because it allows a systematic and rational appraisal of the relative efficiency, diversity and security of power systems. Our findings provide an indicator of how energy-intensive industries will view investment in Australia over the coming decades.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers with number 10-2012.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:10-2012
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  1. Elliston, Ben & Diesendorf, Mark & MacGill, Iain, 2012. "Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 606-613.
  2. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
  3. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2315.
  4. Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2012. "Australian Power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  5. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
  6. Moreno, Blanca & López, Ana J. & García-Álvarez, María Teresa, 2012. "The electricity prices in the European Union. The role of renewable energies and regulatory electric market reforms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 307-313.
  7. Molyneaux, Lynette & Wagner, Liam & Froome, Craig & Foster, John, 2012. "Resilience and electricity systems: A comparative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 188-201.
  8. Krozer, Yoram, 2013. "Cost and benefit of renewable energy in the European Union," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 68-73.
  9. Elliston, Ben & MacGill, Iain & Diesendorf, Mark, 2013. "Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 270-282.
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