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On the band spectral estimation of business cycle models

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  • Nikolay Iskrev

Abstract

In this paper, I evaluate the properties and performance of band spectral estimators applied to business cycle models. Band spectral methods are widely used to study frequency-dependentrelationships among time series. In business cycle research, the Whittle likelihood approximation enables researchers to estimate models using only the frequencies those models are best suited to represent, such as the business cycle frequencies. Using the medium-scale model of Angeletos et al. (2018) as a data-generating process, I conduct a Monte Carlo study to assess the finite-sample properties of the band spectral maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and compare its performance with that of the full-spectrum and exact time-domain MLEs. The results show that the band spectral estimator exhibits considerable biases and efficiency losses for most estimated parameters. Moreover, both the full-information and band spectral Whittle estimators perform poorly in contrast to the time domain estimator, which successfully recovers all model parameters. I demonstrate how these findings can be understood through the theoretical properties of the underlying model, and describe simple tools and diagnostics that can be used to detect potential problems in band spectral estimation for a wide class of macroeconomic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Iskrev, 2024. "On the band spectral estimation of business cycle models," Working Papers w202419, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202419
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2024-12/WP202419.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    2. Xiao-Li Meng & Xianchao Xie, 2014. "I Got More Data, My Model is More Refined, but My Estimator is Getting Worse! Am I Just Dumb?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 218-250, June.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Nikolay, Iskrev, 2014. "Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models: Comment," Dynare Working Papers 41, CEPREMAP.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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