Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam
This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median values of the status-quo projections show that the pension fund will be depleted in about 2052 with a 90-percent confidence interval range of 8 years. The estimated results from our sensitivity tests show that the retirement age, the indexation method for pension benefits, and the contribution rate are all crucial determinants of the pension fund balance in the long term. At the same time, some factors, including coverage rates, administrative costs, the long-term fertility rate, and the rate of return on pension fund assets play less important roles in determining the fund’s balance.
|Date of creation:||2008|
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- Giang, Thanh Long, 2005. "Pension Liabilities and Generational Relations: The Case of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006.
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- Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Pfau, Wade D., 2006. "Comparing the Impacts of Social Security Benefit Reductions on the Income Distribution of the Elderly," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 59(2), pages 195-210, June.
- Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
- Holzmann, Robert & Mac Arthur, Ian W. & Sin, Yvonne, 2000. "Pension systems in East Asia and the Pacific : challenges and opportunities," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 23088, The World Bank.
- Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-41, May.
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