IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/970.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pension Liabilities and Generational Relations: The Case of Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Giang, Thanh Long

Abstract

In the next fifty years, according to the United Nations Population Prospect (2004), an aging population is expected in Vietnam. The operation of a pay-as-you-go defined benefit pension scheme will inevitably elevate pension liabilities. These liabilities, in turn, threaten the financial sustainability of the scheme, and affect generational relations. This paper estimates the size of pension liabilities of the current pension scheme in Vietnam, and analyzes generational relations under various economic scenarios. Pension liabilities are considered by a closed-group approach. The estimated results show that pension liabilities account for a small part of 2002 GDP, and this is partially explained by two primary factors: (i) the method of estimation currently employed by the scheme, and (ii) the fact that currently the scheme covers only a small portion of the total population and labour force. It is, however, obvious that the government will have to pay existing pension liabilities, which will affect generational relations in the longer term, particularly from an economic point of view. Whether the impacts on generational relations will be serious or not depends upon payment settings and reforms of the scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Giang, Thanh Long, 2005. "Pension Liabilities and Generational Relations: The Case of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/970/1/MPRA_paper_970.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kunieda, Shigeki, 2002. "Pension Reforms in Asian Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 43(2), pages 55-56, December.
    3. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30153, The World Bank.
    4. Holzmann, Robert & Mac Arthur, Ian W. & Sin, Yvonne, 2000. "Pension systems in East Asia and the Pacific : challenges and opportunities," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 23088, The World Bank.
    5. Franco, Daniele & Marino, Maria Rosaria & Zotteri, Stefania, 2004. "Pension Expenditure Projections, Pension Liabilities and European Union Fiscal Rules," Discussion Paper 231, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Long T. Giang & Wade D. Pfau, 2009. "Vulnerability of Vietnamese Elderly to Poverty: Determinants and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 419-437, December.
    2. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Giang, Thanh Long, 2008. "Social Health Insurance in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9926, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Donghyun & Estrada, Gemma, 2012. "Developing Asia’s Pension Systems and Old-Age Income Support," ADBI Working Papers 358, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    4. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ian Tower & Gregorio Impavido, 2009. "How the Financial Crisis Affects Pensions and Insurance and Why the Impacts Matter," IMF Working Papers 2009/151, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    7. Manasan, Rosario G., 2011. "A Review of Social Insurance in the Philippines," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2009 Vol. XXXVI No. 2, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    9. David Robalino, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7427, December.
    10. Schulz, Erika & Leidl, Reiner & Konig, Hans-Helmut, 2004. "The impact of ageing on hospital care and long-term care--the example of Germany," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-74, January.
    11. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    12. Giorgio Bellettini & Carlotta Berti Ceroni, 1999. "Is Social Security Really Bad for Growth?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 796-819, October.
    13. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Incentivos y desigualdad en el sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación," Working Papers 2002-13, FEDEA.
    14. Martin O’Brien, 2011. "Discouraged Older Male Workers and the Discouraged Worker Effect," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 14(3), pages 217-235.
    15. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, "undated". "The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal," Working Papers 99-08, FEDEA.
    16. Joachim Winter, 2002. "The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets," MEA discussion paper series 02021, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    17. Élisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale. Comparaison de six pays de l'Union Européenne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 261-314.
    18. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Pension reform, savings behavior and corporate governance," Papers 99-48, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    19. Klaus Kaier & Christoph Müller, 2015. "New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: concept, results and applications," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 865-895, November.
    20. Leopold Diebalek & Doris Prammer, 2006. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 78-109.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; inter (intra)generational relations; pension liabilities/debts; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.