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Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance


  • Robert P. Hagemann


  • Giuseppe Nicoletti



Recent swings in fertility rates, combined with anticipated increases in life expectancy, are expected to result in a significant increase in the number and proportion of elderly persons in the first half of the next century. This "ageing" of OECD populations is expected to have widespread impacts, affecting labour markets, the composition and level of consumption and output, national rates of saving and the rate of capital accumulation, etc. A widely recognized effect of ageing will be the pressures it will place on public sector finances as the share of future output transferred to a large dependent population rises. This paper discusses some of the potential economic impacts of ageing. It also presents an analysis of its impacts on public pension financing requirements, with particular emphasis on selected OECD countries -- Germany, Japan, Sweden and the United States. It is shown that, where desirable, future increases in retirement age and benefit reductions could help reduce ... Les évolutions récentes des taux de natalité, s'ajoutant aux hausses anticipées de l'espérance de vie, auront pour effet de faire croître fortement le nombre et la proportion des personnes âgées dans la première moitié du siècle prochain. On s'attend à ce que ce "viellissement" de la population ait de multiples effets économiques, affectant les marchés du travail, la structure et le niveau de la consommation et de la production, les taux d'épargne nationaux et les rythmes d'accumulation du capital, etc. On s'accorde à reconnaître qu'il en résultera une pression sur les finances publiques, au fur et à mesure qu'une part croissante de la production devra être transférée à une population dépendante plus nombreuse. Cette étude traite de certaines des incidences économiques potentielles du vieillissement de la population. Elle tente également de cerner l'impact de ce phénomène sur les charges de financement des retraites publiques, notamment en ce qui concerne quatre pays de l'OCDE -- ...

Suggested Citation

  • Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:61-en

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    Cited by:

    1. Ismael Sanz & Francisco Javier Velázquez, 2002. "Determinants of the Composition of Government Expenditure by Functions," European Economy Group Working Papers 13, European Economy Group.
    2. John Creedy & Penelope S. Taylor, 1993. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(3), pages 56-68.
    3. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    4. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2011. "Does pension debt mean anything after all?," MPRA Paper 29694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:8:y:2007:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    9. van Dalen, Hendrik P., 1996. "Pitfalls in the economic analysis of aging," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 157-184, April.
    10. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    11. Luca Beltrametti & Matteo Della Valle, 2011. "Does the implicit pension debt mean anything after all?," CeRP Working Papers 118, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    12. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 54(215), pages 273-308.
    13. repec:vul:omefvu:v:8:y:2017:i:1:id:216 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Oksanen, Heikki, 2014. "Public finance sustainability gap and raising the retirement age, abstract and full summary," Research Reports 177, VATT Institute for Economic Research.

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