IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v9y2021i11p190-d664673.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Pensions and Implicit Debt: An Investigation for EU Member States Using Ageing Working Group 2021 Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Georgios Symeonidis

    (Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, School of Finance and Statistics, University of Piraeus, Karaoli ke Dimitriou 80, 18534 Piraeus, Greece)

  • Platon Tinios

    (Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, School of Finance and Statistics, University of Piraeus, Karaoli ke Dimitriou 80, 18534 Piraeus, Greece)

  • Michail Chouzouris

    (Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, School of Finance and Statistics, University of Piraeus, Karaoli ke Dimitriou 80, 18534 Piraeus, Greece)

Abstract

Ιmplicit pension debt is attracting increasing attention worldwide as a driver of fiscal dynamics, operating in parallel to the (explicit) National Debt. A prudent examination of a state’s fiscal prospects should ideally encompass both, with due attention paid to the special features of each kind of debt. The explosion of government deficits as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic only adds to the urgency of understanding the scale and nature of issues around accounting for contingent liabilities. The reports of the EU Ageing working group, produced and published every three years are used to derive estimates of the stock of outstanding implicit pension debt from flows of projected deficits. This can be performed for all European member states. This paper uses the last two rounds of the Ageing Report (2021, 2018) and derives conclusions on the evolution of pension debt and its correlation to the external debt. The paper concludes that producing comparable estimates of IPD should become an important input in EU policy discussion.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Symeonidis & Platon Tinios & Michail Chouzouris, 2021. "Public Pensions and Implicit Debt: An Investigation for EU Member States Using Ageing Working Group 2021 Projections," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:11:p:190-:d:664673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/11/190/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/11/190/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georgios Symeonidis & Platon Tinios & Panos Xenos, 2020. "Enhancing Pension Adequacy While Reducing the Fiscal Budget and Creating Essential Capital for Domestic Investments and Growth: Analysing the Risks and Outcomes in the Case of Greece," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Paul van den Noord & Richard Herd, 1993. "Pension Liabilities in the Seven Major Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 142, OECD Publishing.
    3. Bliss, C. J., 1975. "Capital Theory and the Distribution of Income," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780720436044 edited by Bliss, C. J..
    4. Mauricio Soto & Frank Eich & Mr. Benedict J. Clements, 2011. "A Fiscal Indicator for Assessing First and Second Pillar Pension Reforms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/009, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sheetal K. Chand & Mr. Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 1996/013, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30153, The World Bank.
    7. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    8. Ponds, E.H.M. & Severinson, C. & Yermo, J., 2012. "Implicit debt in public sector plans : An international comparison," Other publications TiSEM 8263bb65-8b50-4890-9252-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan, 2020. "The Great Demographic Reversal," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 436-445, October.
    10. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    11. Kaier, Klaus & Müller, Christoph, 2013. "New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: Concept, results and applications," FZG Discussion Papers 52, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    12. Tianhong Chen & John A. Turner, 2014. "Social Security Individual Accounts in China: Toward Sustainability in Individual Account Financing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
    14. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2011. "Does pension debt mean anything after all?," MPRA Paper 29694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Luca Beltrametti & Matteo Della Valle, 2011. "Does the implicit pension debt mean anything after all?," CeRP Working Papers 118, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    16. Mercedes Ayuso & Jorge M. Bravo & Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2021. "Automatic Indexation of the Pension Age to Life Expectancy: When Policy Design Matters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-28, May.
    17. Robert Holzmann, 1990. "The Welfare Effects of Public Expenditure Programs Reconsidered," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 338-359, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lei Wang & Zuchun Luo & Wenyi Wang, 2023. "Risk Contagion of Local Government Implicit Debt Integrating Complex Network and Multi-Subject Coordination," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.
    2. David Natali, 2022. "COVID-19 and the opportunity to change the neoliberal agenda: evidence from socio-employment policy responses across Europe," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 28(1), pages 15-30, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    2. Klaus Kaier & Christoph Müller, 2015. "New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: concept, results and applications," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 865-895, November.
    3. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Luca Beltrametti & Matteo Della Valle, 2011. "Does the implicit pension debt mean anything after all?," CeRP Working Papers 118, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    6. Siebert, Horst, 1997. "Pay-as-you-go versus capital funded pension systems: the issues," Kiel Working Papers 816, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 340, McMaster University.
    8. Belloni, Michele & Brugiavini, Agar & Buia, Raluca E. & Carrino, Ludovico & Cavapozzi, Danilo & Orso, Cristina E. & Pasini, Giacomo, 2020. "What do we learn about redistribution effects of pension systems from internationally comparable measures of Social Security wealth?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 548-566, October.
    9. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University.
    11. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    12. Robert Holzmann & Robert Palacios & Asta Zviniene, 2001. "On the Economics and Scope of Implicit Pension Debt: An International Perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 97-129, March.
    13. Christoph Freudenberg & Tamás Berki & Ádám Reiff, 2016. "A Long-Term Evaluation of Recent Hungarian Pension Reforms," MNB Working Papers 2016/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Marek Loužek, 2006. "Má důchodová reforma se zadlužením smysl? [Has pension reform with indebtedness a sense?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(2), pages 247-260.
    15. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2012. "The Implicit Pension Debt: Its Meaning and an International Comparison - Il debito pensionistico: significato e confronti internazionali," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(1), pages 15-38.
    16. Butler, Monika, 1999. "Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 119-159, June.
    17. Mar Devesa Carpio & José E. Devesa Carpio, 2009. "El coste y el desequilibrio financiero-actuarial de los sistemas de reparto. El caso del sistema Español," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    18. Robert Holzmann & Richard Hinz, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7336, December.
    19. Markus Knell & Reinhard Koman, 2022. "Pension Entitlements and Net Wealth in Austria (Markus Knell, Reinhard Koman)," Working Papers 238, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    20. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2011. "Does pension debt mean anything after all?," MPRA Paper 29694, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:11:p:190-:d:664673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.