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Desempleo y Actividad Económica Regional: Un Enfoque Cíclico
[Unemployment and Regional Economic Activity: A Cyclical Approach]

  • Acuña, Andrés

This paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of production and unemployment at regional level, using Chilean quarterly data which spans between 1986:Q1 and 2005:Q4. Once the data set is characterized, it proceeds to modeling the cyclical performance of regional unemployment using auto regressive components (in the form of polynomial distributed lags), and related variables, such as commodities prices, e.g. fruit, copper, oil, salmon. The aim of this approach is to forecast the regional unemployment cyclical behavior for quarters 2006:Q1 and 2006:Q4. The results suggests a notorious unemployment reduction in regions II and V, and a slightly reduction in regions III, IV, X and XII. Moreover, unemployment's cycle will not leave its expansive phase in regions I, VI, XI and RM. Finally, the models predict a rise on unemployment in regions VII and IX, and it will maintain its previous level in region VIII.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8275/1/MPRA_paper_8275.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8275.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision: Mar 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8275
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  1. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
  2. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Distortions in a Neoclassical Monetary Economy," Papers 91-01, Rochester, Business - General.
  3. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 307, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  5. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 540-42, August.
  6. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1998. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Staff Report 251, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  9. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
  11. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 519-39, August.
  12. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  13. Helmut Franken & Guillermo Le Fort & Eric Parrado, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Shock Resilience in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 331, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Carlos Oyarzún & Iván Araya, 2001. "Long run dynamics of regional growth in Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 69-78, June.
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