IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/79704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Role Did Rising Demand Play in Driving Food Prices Up?

Author

Listed:
  • Sen Gupta, Abhijit
  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani

Abstract

Average food inflation in India during the period 2006-2013 was one of the highest among emerging market economies, and nearly double the inflation witnessed in India during the previous decade. An often cited hypothesis argues that the surge in food inflation during this period was driven by rising demand for high-value food products due to higher per capita income and diversification of Indian diets. In this paper we test the validity of this hypothesis by estimating the expenditure elasticity and then calculating the aggregate demand using data from household survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO). Our results show that in recent years estimated demand has exceeded supply of all major food products, barring fruits. Moreover, empirical estimates indicate that the demand supply gap is an important driver of rise in food prices, along with other factors such as minimum support prices, global prices, fiscal deficit and agricultural wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Bhattacharya, Rudrani, 2016. "What Role Did Rising Demand Play in Driving Food Prices Up?," MPRA Paper 79704, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79704/1/MPRA_paper_79704.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jayatilleke S. Bandara, 2013. "What is Driving India’s Food Inflation? A Survey of Recent Evidence," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 127-156, March.
    2. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Pattanaik, Sitikantha, 2010. "Global Crisis, Fiscal Response and Medium-term Risks to Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 50907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Clément Imbert & John Papp, 2015. "Labor Market Effects of Social Programs: Evidence from India's Employment Guarantee," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 233-263, April.
    4. Xi, Jing & Mittelhammer, Ronald C. & Heckelei, Thomas, 2004. "A Quaids Model Of Japanese Meat Demand," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20120, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Surabhi Mittal, 2010. "Application of the Quaids Model to the Food Sector in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 42-54, January.
    6. Kumar, Praduman & Kumar, Anjani & Parappurathu, Shinoj & Raju, S.S., 2011. "Estimation of Demand Elasticity for Food Commodities in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 24(1), June.
    7. Mishra, Prachi & Roy, Devesh, 2012. "Explaining Inflation in India: The Role of Food Prices," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(1), pages 139-224.
    8. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2015. "Food Inflation in India: Causes and Consequences," Working Papers id:7141, eSocialSciences.
    9. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    10. Erlend Berg & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Rajasekhar Durgam & Manjula Ramachandra, 2012. "Can Rural Public Works Affect Agricultural Wages? Evidence from India," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-05, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    11. Sasmal, Joydeb, 2015. "Food price infl ation in India: The growing economy with sluggish agriculture," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 30-40.
    12. Subir Gokarn, 2011. "The price of protein," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 327-335, July.
    13. Agrawal, Pradeep & Kumarasamy, Durairaj, 2014. "Food Price Inflation in India: Causes and Cures," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 57-84.
    14. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2018. "Drivers and impact of food inflation in India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 146-168, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2015. "Food Inflation in India: Causes and Consequences," Working Papers 15/151, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Weber, Regine, 2015. "Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices: Evidence from India," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211901, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Rao, Narhari, 2014. "Understanding Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 58319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. K. U. Gopakumar & Vishwanath Pandit, 2017. "Food inflation in India: protein products," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 157-179, December.
    5. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2018. "Drivers and impact of food inflation in India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 146-168, May.
    6. Kheda, V & Saravanakumarb, V & Umesha, KB, 2018. "Does farm size explain food consumption pattern? evidence from semi-arid regions of India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 31(2).
    7. Javier García-Enríquez & Cruz A. Echevarría, 2016. "Consistent Estimation of a Censored Demand System and Welfare Analysis: The 2012 VAT Reform in Spain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 324-347, June.
    8. Laura Zimmermann, 2014. "Public works programs in developing countries have the potential to reduce poverty," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-25, May.
    9. Kavitha, V. & Umanath, M. & Paramasivam, R. & Chandran, K., 2016. "Determinants of Consumption Probability and Demand for Fruits in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 29(Conferenc).
    10. Kartik Misra, 2019. "No Employment without Participation : An Evaluation of India's Employment Program in Eastern Uttar Pradesh," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2019-13, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    11. Andrew D. Foster & Esther Gehrke, 2017. "Start What You Finish! Ex Ante Risk and Schooling Investments in the Presence of Dynamic Complementarities," NBER Working Papers 24041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ball, Laurence & Chari, Anusha & Mishra, Prachi, 2016. "Understanding Inflation in India," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45.
    13. Tagat, Anirudh, 2020. "Female matters: Impact of a workfare program on intra-household female decision-making in rural India," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Javier García-Enríquez & Cruz A. Echevarría, 2018. "Demand for culture in Spain and the 2012 VAT rise," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(3), pages 469-506, August.
    15. Khanna, Gaurav & Zimmermann, Laura, 2017. "Guns and butter? Fighting violence with the promise of development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 120-141.
    16. Bhargava, Anil K., 2013. "The Impact of India’s Rural Employment Guarantee on Demand for Agricultural Technology," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150163, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Esther Gehrke, 2019. "An Employment Guarantee as Risk Insurance? Assessing the Effects of the NREGS on Agricultural Production Decisions," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 33(2), pages 413-435.
    18. Negi, D., 2018. "Geography and the Welfare Impact of Food Price Shock," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277150, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Meade, Birgit & Muhammad , Andrew, 2017. "The Influence of Income and Prices on Global Dietary Patterns by Country, Age, and Gender," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 10, November.
    20. Mihir Shah, 2016. "Should India do away with the MGNREGA?," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 59(1), pages 125-153, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Inflation; Engel Curves; QUAIDS Model; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.