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How Robust is the Connection between Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Tunisia’s Exports?

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  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • Selmi, Refk

Abstract

This study addresses the robustness of the connection between exchange rate uncertainty and Tunisia’s exports along several econometric methods, acknowledging the complexity of this relationship. To this end, we apply conventional methods (OLS by threshold, instrumental variable by threshold and ARDL Bounds testing approach) and new methods (evolutionary co-spectral analysis and wavelet decomposition). Both methods appear complementary. We find that the exchange rate uncertainty is always more detrimental to exports in the short term or when reaching certain thresholds. These outcomes clearly indicate that Tunisia was headed in the right direction and therefore the continuation of the policies already being pursued seem beneficial, while paying proper attention to short-run disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Robust is the Connection between Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Tunisia’s Exports?," MPRA Paper 57505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57505
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Miranda & Gabriela Mordecki, 2015. "Real exchange rate volatility impact on exports: A comparative study 1990-2013," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 15-18, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "A synthesis of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade via Meta-Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 65737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty interact with International Trade? A Meta-Analysis Revisited," MPRA Paper 56201, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate uncertainty; exports; conventional methods; new methods.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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