IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56564.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price volatility and the political economy of resource-rich nations

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Saber, Mahmud
  • Syed Abul, Basher

Abstract

This paper attempts to understand how price volatility affects the political transition of a resource-rich nation. Two states reflect price volatility: 'high prices' and 'low prices'. We argue that whether or not political transition (i.e., a switch from one regime to another) will take place in a particular state depends critically on the kind of goods a country produces. If the main economic activity in a country is the extraction of "point-source" resources such as oil that demands capital-intensive production, the opportunity cost of switching the existing regime does not alter if the price of the resource changes but the benefit becomes more lucrative. Therefore, the incumbent group is most vulnerable during 'high prices'. If the main economic activity of the nations is the production of "diffused resources" that requires labor such as coffee, prices do affect the opportunity cost. Nations concentrating in these commodities, face acute political crisis during downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Saber, Mahmud & Syed Abul, Basher, 2014. "Price volatility and the political economy of resource-rich nations," MPRA Paper 56564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56564/1/MPRA_paper_56564.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Matsen, Egil & Natvik, Gisle J. & Torvik, Ragnar, 2016. "Petro populism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-12.
      • Egil Matsen & Gisle J. Natvik & Ragnar Torvik, 2012. "Petro populism," Working Paper 2012/06, Norges Bank.
      • Egil Matsen & Gisle J. Natvik & Ragnar Torvik, 2014. "Petro Populism," Working Papers No 1/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
      • Egil Matsen & Ragnar Torvik & Gisle J. Natvik, 2012. "Petro populism," Working Paper Series 12812, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    3. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    4. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    5. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    6. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, December.
    8. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    9. Arezki, Rabah & Ismail, Kareem, 2013. "Boom–bust cycle, asymmetrical fiscal response and the Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 256-267.
    10. Ross, Michael L., 2004. "How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(01), pages 35-67, February.
    11. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    12. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    13. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adibi, Nabiollah & Ataee-pour, Majid, 2015. "Decreasing minerals׳ revenue risk by diversification of mineral production in mineral rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price volatility; Natural resources; Political systems.;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.