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Gross In-Migration and Public Policy in the U.S. during the Great Recession: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis, 2008-2009

  • Cebula, Richard
  • Nair-Reichert, Usha
  • Coombs, Christopher

For the period 2008-2009 of the “Great Recession,” the gross state-level in-migration rate was an increasing function of expected per capita personal income, state parks per capita, and warmer January temperatures. For the same study period, the gross in-migration rate was a decreasing function of the cost of living, the poverty rate, the average state income tax rate, per capita property taxation, and hazardous waste sites. All of the estimates yield results suggesting consistently, as in previous studies of earlier time periods, that migrants (consumer-voters) at the very minimum prefer lower state income tax burdens and lower property tax burdens. Consumer-voters’ evaluation of government services in determining their choice of location during the “Great Recession” appears to depend upon the type of government service. While consumer-voters on average appear to prefer states with greater public provision of state parks, our results do not indicate a strong preference for states with higher per pupil outlays on primary and secondary public education.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55449/1/MPRA_paper_55449.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55449.

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Date of creation: 13 Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55449
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  1. Leonard Carlson & Richard Cebula, 1981. "Voting with one's feet: A brief note on the case of public welfare and the American Indian," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 321-325, January.
  2. Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State-to-State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360.
  3. Cebula, Richard, 1978. "The Determinants of Human Migration," MPRA Paper 58401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Conway, Karen Smith & Houtenville, Andrew J., 2001. "Elderly Migration and State Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the 1990 Census Migration Flows," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 54(n. 1), pages 103-24, March.
  5. Fields, Gary S, 1976. "Labor Force Migration, Unemployment and Job Turnover," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 407-15, November.
  6. Chi, Guangqing & Voss, Paul, 2005. "Migration Decision-making: A Hierarchical Regression Approach," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 35(2).
  7. Carlson, Leonard & Cebula, Richard, 1980. "Voting with One's Feet: A Brief Note on the Case of Public Welfare and the American Indian," MPRA Paper 51559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Government Tax and Auditing Policies on the Size of the Underground Economy: The Case of the United States, 1973-94," MPRA Paper 49810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kenneth Greene, 1977. "Spillovers, migration and public school expenditures: The repetition of an experiment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 85-93, March.
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