IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Oklahoma


  • Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo


I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder of Florida State (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Oklahoma, creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation, and the State: the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, 9/11 2001, and the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building bombing This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Oklahoma. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S., New York State, New York City, Arizona, Massachusetts, California, Washington, Ohio, Philadelphia City, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, and Michigan. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Oklahoma," MPRA Paper 5095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5095

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    3. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
    4. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    : A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries; and terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.