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Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries

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  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder of New York City – NYC (1797-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the city. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks in New York City from 1826 to 2005, historically occur in the estimated turning point dates, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting terrorist murder and attacks for New York City.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries," MPRA Paper 4200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4200
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/1/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: crime cycles in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; decomposing violence: terrorist murder; and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005;

    JEL classification:

    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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