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Decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth century in the U.S

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, alternation in power, social, and political unrest overseas as wars, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the country. The cyclical component estimated shows that, 9/11 2001 terrorist attacks occurred, two years after the end of the last declining cycle of 1994-1999. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns, that terrorist attacks in U.S., soil from 1923 to 2004, historically occur in, and around the vicinity of the turning points, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting cyclical terrorist murder, and terrorist attacks.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1145.

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Date of creation: 13 Jun 2006
Date of revision: 11 Nov 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1145
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  1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
  3. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
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