Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries
I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the reconstructed time series of murder of the City of Philadelphia (1826-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in to the United States. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks to the U.S, have affected Philadelphia City creating turning point dates marked by those attacks. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Philadelphia. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf., Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf, and Arkansas. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4606/01/MPRA_paper_4606.pdf. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
|Date of creation:||29 Jan 2007|
|Date of revision:||08 Sep 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Levitt, Steven D, 1996.
"The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-51, May.
- Steven D. Levitt, 1995. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence From Prison Overcrowding Litigation," NBER Working Papers 5119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newbold, Paul, 1990.
"Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
- Tom Doan, . "BNDECOMP: RATS procedure to perform Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Statistical Software Components RTS00028, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4783. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.