Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Massachusetts
Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Massachusetts. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder warns that terrorist attacks in the U.S. from 1940 to 2005, have affected Massachusetts creating estimated turning point dates clearly marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the shut down in power in NYC in 1965, the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001. The index for Massachusetts foretold with amazing precision those attacks, and must be used as a proxy for attacks for the Whole U.S along with indexes already constructed for the nation (http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf) and, New York City (http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf). The indexes must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism on the U.S. economy.
|Date of creation:||21 Jan 2007|
|Date of revision:||20 May 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newbold, Paul, 1990.
"Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
- Tom Doan, . "BNDECOMP: RATS procedure to perform Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Statistical Software Components RTS00028, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
- Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.