Cycles of violence, riots, and terrorist attacks index for the State of California
I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of California. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order as riots, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder, or attacks index found is optimal, and warns that terrorist attacks against the U.S., and riots in California have created estimated turning point dates marked by those tragic events. The index peaked to point out the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001, and for California it amazingly well captured the riots of 1965 and 1992. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks through the construction of Attacks indexes across the U.S. Other indexes constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf. These indexes must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks, and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
|Date of creation:||23 Jan 2007|
|Date of revision:||19 Aug 2007|
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