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Decomposing Violence: Crime Cycles In The Twentieth Century In The United States

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  • GOMEZ-SORZANO, Gustavo Alejandro

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Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, alternation in power, social, and political unrest overseas as wars, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • GOMEZ-SORZANO, Gustavo Alejandro, 2007. "Decomposing Violence: Crime Cycles In The Twentieth Century In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:1_8
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    3. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "Decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth century in the U.S," MPRA Paper 1145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2006.
    4. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
    5. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    United States; Colombia; murder; Beveridge-Nelson; business cycle; decomposition; time-series; domestic terrorism; cyclical terrorist murder; cyclical terrorist attacks; cyclical terrorist murder and attacks indicator.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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