Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Missouri
I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder of Missouri State (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Missouri, creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the shut down in power in NYC in 1965, the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001 This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Missouri. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf., Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf., Philadelphia City, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4783/01/MPRA_paper_4783.pdf, Arkansas http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4606/01/MPRA_paper_4606.pdf These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
|Date of creation:||30 Jan 2007|
|Date of revision:||15 Sep 2007|
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