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Are Output Fluctuations Transitory in the MENA Region?


  • doğru, bülent


This study analyzes the nonstationarity of per capita real GDP for 11 Middle East and North Asia (MENA) Countries over the period 1970 to 2012 using two recently developed methods. SURADF and CADF panel unit root tests allowing for cross sectional dependence are used to determine whether output fluctuations are permanent or transitory. Contrary to the traditional view of business cycle, we find econometric evidences supporting the idea that the output fluctuations in MENA region are mostly permanent. These results also emphasize that the effectiveness of stabilization policies aimed real output by government should be reviewed to achieve long-lasting results.

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  • doğru, bülent, 2013. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory in the MENA Region?," MPRA Paper 49080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49080

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    2. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S, 2001. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit-Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 482-493, August.
    3. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    6. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Is per capita real GDP stationary in African countries? Evidence from panel SURADF test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1003-1008.
    7. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Is OECD real per capita GDP trend or difference stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 673-689.
    8. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 2002. " Series-Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-546, December.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:31:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    11. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    12. Chi-Wei Su & Yi-Sung Huang & Peirchyi Lii & Ning-Jun Zhang, 2007. "IS Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in China¡H Evidence Based on A Panel SURADF Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12.
    13. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
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    More about this item


    Panel unit root tests; MENA region; output fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General

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