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Winners and Losers in a Free Trade Area between the United States and MERCOSUR


  • Marcel, Vaillant
  • Alvaro, Ons


The paper focus on the characteristics of the political economy of an FTA of this kind. With this objective, they develop a methodology that allows them to study the welfare effects of a bilateral agreement by identifying the sectors that would encounter the most problems and those that would be most favored by a trade agreement. A general typology of the changes under different protection regimes in an eventual free trade area between the United States and MERCOSUR is developed (enhanced protection versus reduced protection and trade diversion versus trade creation). This methodology utilizes data on trade and production, and it allows the typology of goods in each of these categories to be determined empirically. The work is carried out at a high level of disaggregation so as to be able to identify the reciprocal sensitive sectors. The results constitute an objective base for analyzing the lists of exceptions that the trade agreement would entail.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel, Vaillant & Alvaro, Ons, 2003. "Winners and Losers in a Free Trade Area between the United States and MERCOSUR," MPRA Paper 47315, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47315

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    2. Marcel Vaillant & Alvaro Ons, 2002. "Preferential Trading Arrangements Between the European Union and South America: The Political Economy of Free Trade Zones in Practice," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(10), pages 1433-1468, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Laens & Inés Terra, 2003. "Integration of the Americas: Welfare Effects and Options for the MERCOSUR," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0903, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. Honório Kume & Guida Piani & Pedro Miranda, 2005. "Índia-Mercosul: Perspectivas de um Acordo de Preferências Comerciais," Discussion Papers 1120, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    3. Alexander Schejtman & Julio A. Berdegué, 2006. "El Impacto Social de la Integración Regional en América Latina Rural," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2327, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Alexander Schejtman & Julio A. Berdegué, 2006. "El Impacto Social de la Integración Regional en América Latina Rural," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9125, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Honório Kume & Guida Piani, 2004. "ALCA: Uma Estimativa do Impacto no Comércio Bilateral Brasil-Estados Unidos," Discussion Papers 1058, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

    More about this item


    preferential trade agreements; political economy trade policy model;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration


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