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Are Thai Manufacturing Exports and Imports of Capital Goods Related?

  • Jiranyakul, Komain

This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing exports and imports of capital goods in Thailand using monthly data from January 2000 to July 2011. The results from bounds testing for cointegration show that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports of capital goods in manufacturing sector. In addition, the positive relationship between the growth rate of imports of capital goods and the growth rate of manufacturing exports is observed. The results support the notion that foreign capital is essential in the process of industrialization, and thus economic growth. A decline in imports of capital goods will reduce manufacturing exports and impedes economic growth in the future. It is also likely that exports of manufactured products are the main source of foreign exchanges to finance imports of capital goods which cannot be produced in the country due to comparative disadvantage.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45654/9/MPRA_paper_45654.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45654.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45654
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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  2. Komain Jiranyakul, 2010. "Recent evidence of the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for Thailand," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2151-2159.
  3. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
  4. Jong-Wha Lee, 1994. "Capital Goods Imports and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 4725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001. "Trade in capital goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235.
  6. Francesco Caselli & Daniel Wilson, 2002. "Importing technology," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  9. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April.
  11. Uwe Dulleck & Neil Foster, 2007. "Imported Equipment, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," NCER Working Paper Series 16, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  12. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Krugman, Paul, 1981. "Trade, accumulation, and uneven development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 149-161, April.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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