IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i24p10262-d458903.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xibing Li

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Jiao Liu

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Jian Zhou

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Xiling Liu

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Lei Zhou

    (Bureau of Ecology and Environment, Changsha 410000, China)

  • Wei Wei

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine whether socioeconomic volatility produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators. Adopting the Autoregressive distributed lag error-correction model (ARDL-ECM), this paper explores the long-term equilibrium and short-term interactions between five common economic indicators, namely, average salaries (AS), employment (EM), unemployment (UE), total mileage of highway (TMH), and private vehicle ownership (PVO), as well as road traffic-related indicators including the number of road traffic accidents (RTA), injuries (IN), fatalities (FA), and direct economic losses (DEL), using data of road traffic accidents spanning from 1999 to 2018 in China. The study found that all economic indicators except average salaries showed a long-term equilibrium with road traffic accident indicators. The Granger causality test showed that, over the short term, an increase in employment could lead to an increase in injuries, and an increase in private vehicle ownership could cause a rise in fatalities. This study demonstrates that the volatility in economic indicators indeed produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators, providing a theoretical basis for improving road safety performance and formulating relevant policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Xibing Li & Jiao Liu & Jian Zhou & Xiling Liu & Lei Zhou & Wei Wei, 2020. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10262-:d:458903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10262/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10262/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Law, Teik Hua & Noland, Robert B. & Evans, Andrew W., 2011. "The sources of the Kuznets relationship between road fatalities and economic growth," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 355-365.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-85.
    4. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Gustavo A. Marrero & Rosa Marina González-Marrero & Teresa Leal-Linares, 2016. "Road accidents and business cycles in Spain," Working Papers 16.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    8. Law, Teik Hua, 2015. "Factors associated with the relationship between non-fatal road injuries and economic growth," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-172.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Bruggemann, Ralf & Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006. "Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 579-604, October.
    11. Yung-Hsiang Ying & Chin-Chih Wu & Koyin Chang, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Drinking and Driving Policies for Different Alcohol-Related Fatalities: A Quantile Regression Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chengwu Li & Xiangbing Wang & Chengmin Wei & Min Hao & Zhen Qiao & Yonghang He, 2021. "Analysis of the Correlation between Occupational Accidents and Economic Factors in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Nahid Pourrostami & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Fatemeh Zarezadeh Mehrizi, 2023. "Population aging and working hour impacts on occupational accidents: evidence from Japan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2621-2644, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mohammad Jaforullah & Alan King, 2015. "is New Zealand's economy vulnerable to world oil market shocks?," Working Papers 1503, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    4. Hussain Ali Bekhet & Raed Walid Al-Smadi, 2016. "The dynamic causality between FDI inflow and its determinants in Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 26-47.
    5. ŞENTÜRK, İsmail & Ali, Amjad, 2019. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Gender Specific Life Expectancy in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 97815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "Are Thai Manufacturing Exports and Imports of Capital Goods Related?," MPRA Paper 45654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Bibi, Chan, 2016. "Determinants of Social Progress and its Scenarios under the role of Macroeconomic Instability: Empirics from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nur Setyowati, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Islamic Banking Products in Indonesia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Ciro Bazán & Víctor Josué Álvarez-Quiroz & Yennyfer Morales Olivares, 2022. "Wagner’s Law vs. Keynesian Hypothesis: Dynamic Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-25, August.
    10. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    13. Mitch Kunce, 2022. "The Tenuous Ecological Divorce and Unemployment Link with Suicide: A U.S. Panel Analysis 1968-2020," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    14. Solomon P. Nathaniel & Festus V. Bekun, 2020. "Electricity Consumption, Urbanization and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insights from Combined Cointegration amidst Structural Breaks," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/013, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    15. Moustfa Ismael Khaleel & Ahmed Younis Jabbar & Maha Kalai & Rima Aloulou & Kamel Helali, 2024. "An Applied Study of the Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and International Financial Markets on Economic Growth in Iraq," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 66-80, July.
    16. Ahmed Raza ul MUSTAFA* & Mohammad NISHAT**, 2017. "ROLE OF SOCIAL PROTECTION IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN PAKISTAN: A Quantitative Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88.
    17. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    18. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    19. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
    20. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2014. "The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 623-633.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10262-:d:458903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.