IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/41032.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Methodological mistakes and econometric consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Zaman, Asad

Abstract

Econometric Methodology is based on logical positivist principles. Since logical positivism has collapsed, it is necessary to re-think these foundations. We show that positivist methodology has led econometricians to a meaningless search for patterns in the data. An alternative methodology which relates observed patterns to real causal structures is proposed

Suggested Citation

  • Zaman, Asad, 2012. "Methodological mistakes and econometric consequences," MPRA Paper 41032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41032/1/MPRA_paper_41032.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
    2. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2011. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 22-33, September.
    3. Asad Zaman, 2012. "Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 99-122, September.
    4. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    5. Zaman, Asad, 2010. "Normative foundations of scarcity," MPRA Paper 21817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asad Zaman, 2012. "Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 99-122, September.
    2. Asad Zaman, 2017. "Lessons in Econometric Methodology: The Axiom of Correct Specification," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 50-68, September.
    3. Hussain, Anwar & Rahman, Muhammad & Memon, Junaid Alam, 2016. "Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: the way forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 73-80.
    4. Sidika Basci & Nadia Hassan, 2020. "Using Numbers to Persuade: Hidden Rhetoric of Statistics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 75-97, April.
    5. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
    6. Asad Zaman, 2014. "An Islamic Approach to Humanities مقاربة إسلامية للعلوم الإنسانية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 27(2), pages 3-28, July.
    7. Hasan, Zubair, 2018. "Methodology of Islamic economics: Is the subject worth discussing?," MPRA Paper 85824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hasan, Zubair, 2018. "Alarming rise in predatory publishing and its consequences for Islamic economics and finance education," MPRA Paper 86146, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2018.
    9. Asad Zaman & Taseer Salahuddin, 2020. "Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable?," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 50-74, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asad Zaman & Taseer Salahuddin, 2020. "Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable?," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 50-74, April.
    2. Asad Zaman, 2017. "Lessons in Econometric Methodology: The Axiom of Correct Specification," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 50-68, September.
    3. Jing Xing, 2011. "Does tax structure affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers 1120, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    4. Marc-Olivier Bessette & Mariame Dioubate & Myriane Hébert & Miriam Elsie Kuimi Tchana & Laura Morissette & Jean-Charles Toupin & Raoul Yaro & Maurice Doyon, 2020. "La présence de biais cognitifs en analyse économique : une étude de cas," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-12, CIRANO.
    5. Christoph Engel, 2006. "The Difficult Reception of Rigorous Descriptive Social Science in the Law," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2006_1, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    6. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January.
    7. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2019. "Shackling the Identification Police?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1016-1026, April.
    8. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    9. R Burger & S du Plessis, 2011. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 21-47, December.
    10. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Empirics of Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Cho, Seo-Young & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2012. "Compliance with the Anti-trafficking Protocol," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 249-265.
    12. Durlauf, Steven N. & Navarro, Salvador & Rivers, David A., 2016. "Model uncertainty and the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry laws on crime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-67.
    13. Kolstad, Ivar & Villanger, Espen, 2008. "Determinants of foreign direct investment in services," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 518-533, June.
    14. Timothy B. Armstrong & Michal Kolesár, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis using approximate moment condition models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 77-108, January.
    15. Martin Gassebner & Jerg Gutmann & Stefan Voigt, 2016. "When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 293-313, December.
    16. de Haan, Jakob & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2000. "On the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 215-241, June.
    17. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "How Sensitive Are VAR Forecasts to Prior Hyperparameters? An Automated Sensitivity Analysis," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, volume 40, pages 229-248, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Richard Ashley & Christopher Parmeter, 2015. "Sensitivity analysis for inference in 2SLS/GMM estimation with possibly flawed instruments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1171, December.
    19. Christian Bjørnskov & Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of life satisfaction: exploring different determinants across groups in society," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 30(1), pages 119-173, January.
    20. Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric Methodology; logical positivism; realism; causality; VAR models; Forecasting; surprise; goodness of fit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.