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The effects of school quality on fertility in a transition economy

  • Vasilaky, Kathryn

This paper investigates the effects of school quality on fertility in a transition country. It aims to explain the slowing fertility and shrinking rural sector of a post Soviet country, Ukraine, through the decline in the quality of public services, in particular, school quality. It builds on earlier work of Rosenzweig (1982), which tests for the effects of a change in the price of child quality, measured here by school quality. Estimates from a generalized Poisson model of fertility show that school quality has a positive and significant effect on household fertility. Specifically, a 10 % increase in teacher quality is associated with a 3+% rise in fertility. This positive relationship between education and fertility distinguishes itself from the negative relationship that is commonly observed between these two factors. It also suggests that Ukraine should reconsider its population policies that are aimed at increasing fertility, from short term income transfers for rural families to long term investments into the quality and equality of their education system.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38965.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38965
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  1. Lorraine Dearden & Javier Ferri & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The effect of school quality on educational attainment and wages," IFS Working Papers W00/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Ueli Grob & Stefan C. Wolter, 2005. "Demographic Change and Public Education Spending: A Conflict between Young and Old?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1555, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2005. "New Evidence on the Causal Link Between the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 11835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2004. "Returns to Schooling in Russia and Ukraine: A Semiparametric Approach to Cross-Country Comparative Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1325, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Mark R. Rosenzweig, 1982. "Educational Subsidy, Agricultural Development, and Fertility Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 67-88.
  6. Hartmut Lehmann & Norberto Pignatti & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2005. "The Incidence and Cost of Job Loss in the Ukrainian Labor Market," CERT Discussion Papers 0504, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  7. Behrman, Jere R & Birdsall, Nancy, 1983. "The Quality of Schooling: Quantity Alone is Misleading," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 928-46, December.
  8. Betts, Julian R, 1995. "Does School Quality Matter? Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 231-50, May.
  9. Osipian, Ararat, 2008. "Economic Growth—Human Capital Nexus in Post-Soviet Ukraine, 1989-2009," MPRA Paper 7731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Mehmet Ali Ulubasoglu & Buly Cardak, . "International Comparisons of Rural-Urban Educational Attainment: Data and Determinants," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600097, EcoMod.
  11. Weiren Wang & Felix Famoye, 1997. "Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 273-283.
  12. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2009. "Fertility, Money Holdings, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ukraine," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(1), pages 75-99, March.
  13. Huffman, Wallace E. & Orazem, Peter F., 2007. "Agriculture and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Farmers, Schooling and Nutrition," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
  14. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  15. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
  16. Louise Grogan, 2006. "An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 363-397.
  17. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-40, January.
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