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An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

  • Louise Grogan

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994-2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 363-397

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:363-397
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  1. Irina Denisova & Stanislav Kolenikov & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2000. "Child Benefits and Child Poverty," Working Papers w0006, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  2. Siv S. Gustafsson & Shirley Dex & C├ęcile M. M. P. Wetzels & Jan Dirk Vlasblom, 1996. "Women`s labor force transitions in connection with childbirth: A panel data comparison between Germany, Sweden and Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 223-246.
  3. S. Misikhina, 1999. "Social Payments and Benefits in the Russian Federation," Problems of Economic Transition, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(6), pages 33-39, October.
  4. Namkee Ahn & Pedro Mira, . "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Studies on the Spanish Economy 13, FEDEA.
  5. Ermisch, John F, 1990. "European Women's Employment and Fertility Again," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 3-18, April.
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521433297 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia: evidence from panel data," Working Papers w0027, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  8. Jacob Mincer & Solomon Polachek, 1974. "Family Investments in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," NBER Chapters, in: Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility, pages 76-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Phillip B. Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2002. "Abortion as Insurance," NBER Working Papers 8813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mroz, Thomas A & Popkin, Barry M, 1995. "Poverty and the Economic Transition in the Russian Federation," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-31, October.
  11. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December.
  12. Ermisch, John F, 1988. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment," CEPR Discussion Papers 238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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