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An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

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  • Louise Grogan

Abstract

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994-2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.

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  • Louise Grogan, 2006. "An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 363-397.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:363-397
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370601008415
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    Cited by:

    1. Kumo, Kazuhiro & 雲, 和広, 2012. "Determinants of Childbirth in Russia : A Micro-data Approach," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(1), pages 49-69, June.
    2. KUMO, Kazuhiro & 雲, 和広, 2020. "Fertility in Russia: A Re-examination Using Microdata," CEI Working Paper Series 2020-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Gordey Yastrebov, 2021. "The Demographic Echo of War and educational attainment in Soviet Russia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(22), pages 727-768.
    4. Vasilaky, Kathryn, 2011. "The effects of school quality on fertility in a transition economy," MPRA Paper 38965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries: Causes, Consequences, and Questions," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Aliaksandr Amialchuk & Maksim Yemelyanau & Katerina Lisenkova & Mykhaylo Salnykov, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Fertility in Belarus: a Micro-Data Analysis," BEROC Working Paper Series 13, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    7. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2006. "Fertility, Money Holdings, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ukraine," Working Paper 296, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Mar 2008.
    9. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

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