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Information projection: model and applications

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  • Madarasz, Kristof

Abstract

People exaggerate the extent to which their information is shared with others. This paper introduces the concept of such information projection and provides a simple but widely applicable model. The key application describes a novel agency conflict in a frictionless learning environment. When monitoring with ex post information, biased evaluators exaggerate how much experts could have known ex ante and underestimate experts on average. Experts, to defend their reputations, are too eager to base predictions on ex ante information that substitutes for the information jurors independently learn ex post and too reluctant to base predictions on ex ante information that complements the information jurors independently learn ex post. Instruments that mitigate Bayesian agency conflicts are either ineffective or directly backfire. Limiting monitoring improves efficiency. Applications to defensive medicine are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Madarasz, Kristof, 2008. "Information projection: model and applications," MPRA Paper 38612, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38612
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38612/1/MPRA_paper_38612.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madarász, Kristóf, 2015. "Bargaining under the Illusion of Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 10327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ran Spiegler, 2016. "Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1243-1290.
    3. David Danz & Frank Hüber & Dorothea Kübler & Lydia Mechtenberg & Julia Schmid, 2013. "‘I'll do it by myself as I knew it all along’: On the failure of hindsight-biased principals to delegate optimally," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-009, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Kristóf Madarász, 2015. "Projection Equilibrium: Definition and Applications to Social Investment and Persuasion," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2015/566, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    5. Danz, David & Hüber, Frank & Kübler, Dorothea & Mechtenberg, Lydia & Schmid, Julia, 2013. "'I'll do it by myself as I knew it all along': On the failure of hindsight-biased principals to delegate optimally," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2013-203, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    6. Major, Iván & Kiss, Károly M., 2011. "Regulation of network industries in the European Union and in Central and Eastern Europe," 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest 2011: Innovative ICT Applications - Emerging Regulatory, Economic and Policy Issues 52194, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biased beliefs Hindsight bias Misattribution Monitoring Defensive agency Defensive medicine;

    JEL classification:

    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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