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Identificación de ciclos económicos en Bolivia: 1970-2008
[Identification of business cycles in Bolivia: 1970-2008]


  • Valdivia, Daney
  • Yujra, Paola


Study and characterization of business cycles are an important issue in the analysis of empirical regularities in a developing economy. Following standard literature of business cycles, we establish episodes of business cycles in Bolivia. We apply economic and statistical filters to economic series to get the business cycle. Once we get the economic cycle, we apply statistical analysis, volatility and correlations, to characterize the business cycle of fundamental variables for the economy. Important results show pro cyclical movements between macroeconomic variables and GDP. Co-movements of consumption and investment indicate the presence of adaptive and rational expectations. Finally, we present an approximation of natural level of GPD that indicates that the economy should reach a 5% of economic growth in the medium and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Valdivia, Daney & Yujra, Paola, 2009. "Identificación de ciclos económicos en Bolivia: 1970-2008
    [Identification of business cycles in Bolivia: 1970-2008]
    ," MPRA Paper 35884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35884

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Albert Marcet & Morte O. Ravn, "undated". "The HP-Filter in Cross-Country Comparisons," Studies on the Spanish Economy 100, FEDEA.
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    More about this item


    Business cycles; volatility; co- movement;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)


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