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Multiple Threshold Effects for Temperature and Mortality

Author

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  • Chen, Ping-Yu
  • Chen, Chi-Chung
  • Chang, Chia-Lin

Abstract

Heat waves and cold fronts have become frequent of late, and have caused serious disruptions around the world, especially in the mid- and high-latitudes. In future, human beings are likely to face more serious, frequent and long-lasting extreme climate events, with consequent greater damage to human life. This paper uses the multiple panel threshold model to test whether there are threshold effects between temperature and mortality, using a panel of 78 major cities in 22 OECD countries for 1990-2008. From the empirical analysis, we find that the relationship between temperature and mortality has three threshold effects, namely 15.21℉ (-9.33℃), 46.97℉ (8.32℃), and 87.53℉ (30.85℃). If the temperature is below 15.21℉ (-9.33℃), the magnitude of the temperature effect below 15.21℉ (-9.33℃) is greater than the effect between 15.21℉ (-9.33₀C) and 46.97℉ (8.32₀C). When the temperature exceeds 87.53℉ (30.85℃), higher temperature leads to higher mortality rate. Based on the estimated coefficients of mean temperatures in four regimes, we separate 78 cities into five areas with latitudes below 30°, 31°-40°, 41°-50°, and 61°-70°, and predict the impacts of future climate change on mortality for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100. In summer, climate is predicted to increase mortality rates for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100. For latitudes 41°-50° and 51°-60°, the increased mortality rate is much larger than for other latitudes. In winter, the increased magnitude induced by climate change is found to be greater than in summer.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Chi-Chung & Chang, Chia-Lin, 2011. "Multiple Threshold Effects for Temperature and Mortality," MPRA Paper 35521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35521
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35521/1/MPRA_paper_35521.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ulf-G. Gerdtham & Magnus Johannesson, 2004. "Absolute Income, Relative Income, Income Inequality, and Mortality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1).
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
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    4. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
    5. Buckley, Neil J. & Denton, Frank T. & Leslie Robb, A. & Spencer, Byron G., 2004. "The transition from good to poor health: an econometric study of the older population," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 1013-1034, September.
    6. James P. Smith, 1999. "Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets: The Dual Relation between Health and Economic Status," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 145-166, Spring.
    7. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiple panel threshold model; temperature; mortality rates; climate change;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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