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A causal investigation of aggregate output fluctuations in India

Author

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  • Gopalan, Sasidaran

Abstract

This article is an attempt to understand the causal factors behind fluctuations in aggregate output. We find an absence of bidirectional causality between the gross domestic product residual and the gross domestic capital formation residual as well as between the GDP residual and the residual of the combined expenditures of the central and state governments, while the causality between the balance of trade residual and GDP residual is weakly unidirectional.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopalan, Sasidaran, 2006. "A causal investigation of aggregate output fluctuations in India," MPRA Paper 33063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33063
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Satyajit Chatterjee, 2000. "From cycles to shocks: progress in business-cycle theory," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 27-37.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Granger Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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