IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hwwirp/1-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long waves of economic development and the diffusion of general-purpose technologies: The case of railway networks

Author

Listed:
  • Kriedel, Norbert

Abstract

The possible existence of long waves in economic time series has long been an important subject of debate for economists, statisticians and historians. Recent empirical evidence for these long-term fluctuations is found in the literature of structural time series models. One empirical method for detecting long waves which seems to be particularly compatible with their theoretical explanation is the band pass filter. Applying the band pass filter to data from six European countries demonstrates the presence of wave-like fluctuations with a length of between 30 and 50 years. Their turning points show quite strong similarities across the six countries examined. Moreover, there is evidence for a stable lead-lag structure for two countries. The dominant theoretical explanation for long waves stresses the diffusion of general-purpose technologies. The diffusion of the railway system as one example of a general-purpose technology was analysed by means of logistic regression. The results are quite striking, as there seems to be evidence for a temporal sequence, implying that the turning points of railway diffusion occurred before the turning points of long waves.

Suggested Citation

  • Kriedel, Norbert, 2006. "Long waves of economic development and the diffusion of general-purpose technologies: The case of railway networks," HWWI Research Papers 1-1, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:1-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/48217/1/640360009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chol-Won Li, "undated". "Science, Diminishing Returns and Long Waves," Working Papers 9715, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Rainer Metz, 1992. "A Re-examination of Long Waves in Aggregate Production Series," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Kleinknecht & Ernest Mandel & Immanuel Wallerstein (ed.), New Findings in Long-Wave Research, chapter 4, pages 80-119, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Jan P. G. Reijnders, 1992. "Between Trends and Trade Cycles: Kondratieff Long Waves Revisited," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Kleinknecht & Ernest Mandel & Immanuel Wallerstein (ed.), New Findings in Long-Wave Research, chapter 2, pages 15-44, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Jan Reijnders, 1990. "Long Waves in Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 366.
    6. Birgitte Andersen, 1999. "The hunt for S-shaped growth paths in technological innovation: a patent study," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 487-526.
    7. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "The Existence, Endogeneity, and Synchronization of Long Waves: Structural Time Series Model Estimates," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 61-101, December.
    9. Carlota Perez, 2002. "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2640.
    10. Chol‐Won Li, 2001. "Science, Diminishing Returns and Long Waves," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 553-573, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    2. de Groot, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans, 2012. "Common socio-economic cycle periods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 59-68.
    3. G. Silverberg, 2007. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 50, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Jacky Fayolle, 1994. "Le repérage macroéconomique des fluctuations longues : une évaluation critique de quelques travaux modernes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(1), pages 123-166.
    5. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1304.4807, arXiv.org.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    8. Eirini Ozouni & Constantinos Katrakylidis & Grigoris Zarotiadis, 2015. "Investigating the Long Cycles of Capitalism With Spectral and Cross-Spectral Analysis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 7-30.
    9. Reijnders, Jan P.G., 2009. "Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 90-113, June.
    10. Martin Fleming, 2021. "Productivity Growth and Capital Deepening in the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Working Papers 010, The Productivity Institute.
    11. Tomás Gutiérrez-Barbarrusa, 2019. "The interpretation of the cyclical history of capitalism. A comparison between the neo-Schumpeterian and social structure of accumulation (SSA) approaches in light of the long wave theory," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 1285-1314, September.
    12. Antonio Focacci, 2023. "A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    13. Ítalo Pedrosa & Dany Lang, 2021. "To what extent does aggregate leverage determine financial fragility? New insights from an agent-based stock-flow consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1221-1275, September.
    14. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    15. Fusari, Angelo & Reati, Angelo, 2013. "Endogenizing technical change: Uncertainty, profits, entrepreneurship. A long-term view of sectoral dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 76-100.
    16. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    17. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2004. "The Macro-dynamics of the Dutch Economy 1800-1913," Working Papers 04-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
    18. Sharon McCaw, 2007. "Stylised facts about New Zealand business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Rhys Bidder & Ian Dew-Becker, 2016. "Long-Run Risk Is the Worst-Case Scenario," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2494-2527, September.
    20. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Working Papers IES 2015/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2015.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:1-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hwwiide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.