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The cost of fiscal tightening in Poland on the road to the Euro: does the labour market matter? (CGE model simulations)


  • Gradzewicz, Michal
  • Jędrzejowicz, Tomasz
  • Żółkiewski, Zbigniew


The paper presents an assessment of macroeconomic and also some selected structural consequences of the proposed fiscal consolidation necessary for Poland to fulfil the Maastricht fiscal criteria. The fiscal adjustments are assessed with a CGE model simulated over the 2006–2008 horizon. Two sets of simulations are analysed, namely rigid vs. flexible wages. It is shown that the fiscal tightening programme analysed in this paper does not necessarily incur any costs in terms of aggregate GDP loss in years 2006–2008. On the contrary, it may generate additional growth effects, provided that downward wage adjustments reduce unit labour costs, thus fostering the growth. It is concluded that the condition for the achievement of a smooth and relatively low-cost fiscal adjustment is to supplement it with labour market reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Gradzewicz, Michal & Jędrzejowicz, Tomasz & Żółkiewski, Zbigniew, 2007. "The cost of fiscal tightening in Poland on the road to the Euro: does the labour market matter? (CGE model simulations)," MPRA Paper 28146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28146

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    2. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Graafland, Johan J. & de Mooij, Ruud A., 2000. "Tax reform and the Dutch labor market: an applied general equilibrium approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 193-214, October.
    3. António Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Roberts, Barbara M & Round, Jeffery I & Zolkiewski, Zbigniew, 1998. "Structural Features of Economic Reform in Poland," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 211-230, June.
    7. Andrea Bassanini & Jørn Henrik Rasmussen & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Economic Effects of Employment-Conditional Income Support Schemes for the Low-Paid: An Illustration from a CGE Model Applied to Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 224, OECD Publishing.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," NBER Working Papers 5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stefan Boeters & Reinhold Schnabel & Nicole Gürtzgen, 2006. "Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 363-388, November.
    10. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "The importance of composition of fiscal policy: evidence from different exchange rate regimes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2253-2279, September.
    11. Victoria Castillo & David Giuliodori & Alessandro Maffioli & Alejandro Rodríguez & Sofía Rojo & Rodolfo Stucchi, 2014. "El impacto del apoyo al cluster de TIC de la ciudad argentina de Córdoba," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6444, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Andrew Burns & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2002. "Public Expenditure Management in Poland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 346, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item


    fiscal reform; Maastricht criteria; labour market; CGE model;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General


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