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India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective

  • Utsav, Kumar

Age structure and its dynamics are critical in understanding the impact of population growth on a country’s growth prospects. Using state-level data from India, we show that the pace of demographic transition varies across states, and that these differences are likely to be exacerbated over the period 2011-2026. We show that the so-called BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) are likely to see a continuing increase in the share of the working-age population in total population. The BIMARU states are expected to contribute 58% of the increase in India’s working-age population. The BIMARU states have traditionally been the slow-growing states and have performed poorly on different accounts of social and physical infrastructure. Whether India can turn demographic dividend into a boon or whether the dividend will become a bane will critically depend on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit the bulge in the working-age population.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24922.

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Date of creation: 02 Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24922
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  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows?," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
  3. T. Ravi Kumar, 2002. "The Impact of Regional Infrastructure Investment in India," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 194-200.
  4. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2011. "The Service Sector as India's Road to Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 16757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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