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India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective


  • Utsav, Kumar


Age structure and its dynamics are critical in understanding the impact of population growth on a country’s growth prospects. Using state-level data from India, we show that the pace of demographic transition varies across states, and that these differences are likely to be exacerbated over the period 2011-2026. We show that the so-called BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) are likely to see a continuing increase in the share of the working-age population in total population. The BIMARU states are expected to contribute 58% of the increase in India’s working-age population. The BIMARU states have traditionally been the slow-growing states and have performed poorly on different accounts of social and physical infrastructure. Whether India can turn demographic dividend into a boon or whether the dividend will become a bane will critically depend on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit the bulge in the working-age population.

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  • Utsav, Kumar, 2010. "India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective," MPRA Paper 24922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24922

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    2. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
    3. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2011. "The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth?," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-42.
    5. T. Ravi Kumar, 2002. "The Impact of Regional Infrastructure Investment in India," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 194-200.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00173 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Utsav Kumar & Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "India's Growth in the 2000s: Four Facts," Working Paper Series WP11-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    More about this item


    Demographic dividend; economic growth; India; population growth; working-age population;

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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