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Regional convergence in Italy: time series approaches

  • De Siano, Rita
  • D'Uva, Marcella

This paper investigates the evolution of the gap between Italian regions and Italy as a whole during the period 1980-2007. We tested for the presence of the stochastic and β-convergence hypotheses using different time series approaches. The former was studied, first, for all the sample period and then, with an exogenous instantaneous break in the series. The presence of β-convergence, instead, was estimated considering a known and an unknown trend break date model. Our results show that most of the regions does not converge in an “actual” way, since they do not present a stochastic and β convergence simultaneously.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20397/1/MPRA_paper_20397.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20397.

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Date of creation: 18 Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20397
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  2. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
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  3. A. F. Galvao Jr & F. A. Reis Gomes, 2007. "Convergence or divergence in Latin America? A time series analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1353-1360.
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  6. Timothy J. Vogelsang & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Are U.S. regions converging? Using new econometric methods to examine old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 49-62.
  7. Ben-David, D., 1995. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," Papers 40-95, Tel Aviv.
  8. C. Bianchi & M. Menegatti, 2004. "On the potential pitfalls in estimating convergence by means of pooled and panel data," Economics Department Working Papers 2004-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
  9. Rita De Siano & Marcella D'Uva, 2006. "Club convergence in European regions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 569-574.
  10. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
  12. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07.
  13. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  15. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
  17. Li, Qing, 1999. "Convergence Clubs: Some Further Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 59-67, February.
  18. Giuseppe Arbia & Roberto Basile & Gianfranco Piras, 2005. "Using Spatial Panel Data in Modelling Regional Growth and Convergence," ISAE Working Papers 55, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  19. Carluccio Bianchi & Mario Menegatti, 2007. "On the potential pitfalls in estimating β-convergence by means of pooled and panel data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 963-967.
  20. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
  22. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
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