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An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play

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  • Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the performance of an equilibrium model of the term structure of the interest rate under Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences in which consumption growth and inflation follow a VAR process with logistic stochastic volatility. We find that the model can successfully reproduce the first moment of yields and their persistence, but fails to reproduce their standard deviation. The filtered stochastic volatility is a good indicator of crises and shows high persistence, but it is not enough to generate a slowly decaying volatility of yields with respect to maturity. Preference parameters are estimated to be about 4 for the coefficient of relative risk aversion and infinity for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2009. "An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play," MPRA Paper 19153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19153
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19153/1/MPRA_paper_19153.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
    2. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
    3. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
    4. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco J. Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 305-326.
    5. Donaldson, John B. & Johnsen, Thore & Mehra, Rajnish, 1990. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 571-596, October.
    6. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Craig Burnside, 1998. "Discrete State-Space Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," QM&RBC Codes 125, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
    8. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    9. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
    11. Burnside, Craig, 1993. "Consistency of a Method of Moments Estimator Based on Numerical Solutions to Asset Pricing Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 602-632, August.
    12. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; Recursive preferences; Logistic stochastic volatility; Nonlinear Kalman filter; Quadrature-based methods.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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