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An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play

  • Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel

In this paper we analyze the performance of an equilibrium model of the term structure of the interest rate under Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences in which consumption growth and inflation follow a VAR process with logistic stochastic volatility. We find that the model can successfully reproduce the first moment of yields and their persistence, but fails to reproduce their standard deviation. The filtered stochastic volatility is a good indicator of crises and shows high persistence, but it is not enough to generate a slowly decaying volatility of yields with respect to maturity. Preference parameters are estimated to be about 4 for the coefficient of relative risk aversion and infinity for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19153/1/MPRA_paper_19153.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19153.

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Date of creation: 10 Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19153
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  1. Burnside, Craig, 1993. "Consistency of a Method of Moments Estimator Based on Numerical Solutions to Asset Pricing Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 602-632, August.
  2. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  3. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
  4. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
  5. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  6. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979, March.
  8. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
  11. Craig Burnside, 1998. "Discrete State-Space Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," QM&RBC Codes 125, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
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