Policy Advice Derived From Simulation Models
When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on so-called abductive simulation models, which help to better understand how policy measures can influence economic processes. We show that abductive simulation models use a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis based on different data sets. This helps inferring empirically reliable and meaningful statements about how policy measures influence economic processes. By way of example we show how research subsidies by the government influence the likelihood that a regional cluster emerges.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Brenner & André Mühlig, 2007. "Factors and Mechanisms Causing the Emergence of Local Industrial Clusters - A Meta-Study of 159 Cases," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-23, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
- Andrew Brown & Gary Slater & David A. Spencer, 2002. "Driven to abstraction? Critical realism and the search for the 'inner connection' of social phenomena," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 773-788, November.
- Thomas Brenner & Claudia Werker, 2007. "A Taxonomy of Inference in Simulation Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 227-244, October.
- Paul Downward & John H. Finch & John Ramsay, 2002. "Critical realism, empirical methods and inference: a critical discussion," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 481-500, July.
- Simon Deichsel & Andreas Pyka, 2009. "A Pragmatic Reading of Friedman's Methodological Essay and What It Tells Us for the Discussion of ABMs," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(4), pages 1-6.
- Schwerin, Joachim & Werker, Claudia, 2003. "Learning innovation policy based on historical experience," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 385-404, December.
- GÃ¶nenÃ§ Yücel & Els van Daalen, 2009. "An Objective-Based Perspective on Assessment of Model-Supported Policy Processes," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(4), pages 1-3.
- Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December.
- Falk, Rahel, 2007. "Measuring the effects of public support schemes on firms' innovation activities: Survey evidence from Austria," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 665-679, June.
- Thomas Brenner, 2001. "Simulating the Evolution of Localised Industrial Clusters - an Identification of the Basic Mechanisms," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 4(3), pages 1-4.
- Rolf Sternberg & Timo Litzenberger, 2004. "Regional clusters in Germany--their geography and their relevance for entrepreneurial activities," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 767-791, September.
- Braunerhjelm, Pontus & Carlsson, Bo, 1999. "Industry Clusters in Ohio and Sweden, 1975-1995," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 279-293, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.