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Empirical Calibration of Simulation Models

  • Thomas Brenner
  • Claudia Werker

Simulations have become a common tool to study the implications of theoretical models. In addition, computational approaches are frequently used in statistics to adapt models to reality. We aim to merge these approaches. To obtain robust results with significant validity from simulations, empirical data have to be extensively used. We first discuss how inference in economic contexts can be made and then describe our proposed method. It makes extensive use of empirical knowledge for the development of a simulation model whose implications are then examined in the light of empirical data in a Bayesian-like approach. This allows all systems that can be described by the simulation model to be classified into subsets of models. This makes it possible to establish different subsets of models that describe certain realities and to study the characteristics of and causal relationships in these subsets

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 89.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:89
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  1. Malerba, Franco, et al, 1999. "'History-Friendly' Models of Industry Evolution: The Computer Industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 3-40, March.
  2. Schwerin, Joachim & Werker, Claudia, 2003. "Learning innovation policy based on historical experience," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 385-404, December.
  3. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Staff Report 178, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Johann Peter Murmann & Thomas Brenner, 2003. "The Use of Simulations in Developing Robust Knowledge about Causal Processes: Methodological Considerations and an Application to Industrial Evolution," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 66, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Franco Malerba & Luigi Orsenigo, 2002. "Innovation and market structure in the dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry and biotechnology: towards a history-friendly model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 667-703, August.
  6. Dominique Foray & Robin Cowan, 2002. "Evolutionary economics and the counterfactual threat: on the nature and role of counterfactual history as an empirical tool in economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 539-562.
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