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On a Definition of Trend

Author

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  • Silva Lopes, Artur

Abstract

Several reasons explain the absence of a precise, complete and widely accepted definition of trend for economic time series, and the existence of two major disparate models is one of the most important. A recent operational proposal tried to overcome this difficulty resorting to a statistical test with good asymptotic properties against both those alternatives. However, this proposal may be criticized because it rests on a tool for inductive, not deductive, inference. Besides criticizing this recent definition, drawing heavily on previous ones, the paper provides a new proposal, more complete, containing several necessary but no sufficient condition(s).

Suggested Citation

  • Silva Lopes, Artur, 2025. "On a Definition of Trend," MPRA Paper 125073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125073
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trend; time series; macroeconomy; statistical testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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