Determinants of Urbanization: A Comparative Analysis Across Global Cities

Rapid urbanization has catalyzed economic growth, especially for developing nations, and their urban populations have seen a dramatic rise, hence requiring an understanding of and policymaking on socioeconomic issues. The paper presents important factors that determine the population growth in major urban agglomerations around the world with over 5 million inhabitants. The determinants of urban population size in 2020 and population growth rates from 2010-2020 were analyzed using OLS and quantile regression models based on data with geographical, environmental, demographic, political, and infrastructural variables. The main results show that proximity to transportation infrastructure, annual temperature, initial population size, population density, and the number of educational institutions are essential facilitating factors for urban populations. In contrast, port city status, annual precipitation, and CO2 emissions show negative impacts. Many of these same factors are also significant in population growth rates, though state capital status and congestion in traffic flow negatively relate to growth. The results indicate a complex variety of factors that shape global urban growth and imply some policy directions for sustainable urban development investments in education, environmental protection, and transport infrastructure. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics of global urbanization.