IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/113900.html

Our Future World: Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades

Author

Listed:
  • Naughtin, Claire
  • Hajkowicz, Stefan
  • Schleiger, Emma
  • Bratanova, Alexandra
  • Cameron, Alicia
  • Zamin, T
  • Dutta, A

Abstract

Megatrends are trajectories of change that typically unfold over years or decades and have the potential for substantial and transformative impact. CSIRO released its seminal global megatrends in 2012 as part of the Our Future World report. While these megatrends helped inform long-term strategic and policy directions for Australian organisations over the past decade, a lot has changed in that time too, including the recent events of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine crisis and the flow-on impacts to global trade. These changes have had a substantial impact on businesses, communities and governments in Australia and exposed new risks and opportunities. This report presents an update on CSIRO’s global megatrends out to 2042 with the view to guide long term investment, strategic and policy directions across government, industry, the not-for-profit sector and the broader Australian community. Adopting a similar approach to CSIRO’s previous global megatrends, this work explores how the previous megatrends have evolved over the previous decade as well as the new trends, impacts and drivers that have emerged over this period, providing a perspective around how these trends may unfold in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Naughtin, Claire & Hajkowicz, Stefan & Schleiger, Emma & Bratanova, Alexandra & Cameron, Alicia & Zamin, T & Dutta, A, 2022. "Our Future World: Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades," MPRA Paper 113900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113900/1/MPRA_paper_113900.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Longden, 2019. "The impact of temperature on mortality across different climate zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 221-242, November.
    2. Halkos, George & Nomikos, Stylianos, 2021. "Corporate social responsibility: Trends in global reporting initiative standards," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 106-117.
    3. Toph Allen & Kris A. Murray & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Stephen S. Morse & Carlo Rondinini & Moreno Di Marco & Nathan Breit & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2017. "Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jacob Biamonte & Peter Wittek & Nicola Pancotti & Patrick Rebentrost & Nathan Wiebe & Seth Lloyd, 2017. "Quantum machine learning," Nature, Nature, vol. 549(7671), pages 195-202, September.
    5. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultura UNESCO, 2018. "Nature-Based Solutions For Water," Working Papers id:12643, eSocialSciences.
    6. Christopher A. Voigt, 2020. "Synthetic biology 2020–2030: six commercially-available products that are changing our world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6, December.
    7. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 482-483, October.
    8. Kate E. Jones & Nikkita G. Patel & Marc A. Levy & Adam Storeygard & Deborah Balk & John L. Gittleman & Peter Daszak, 2008. "Global trends in emerging infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 990-993, February.
    9. Ladd Keith & Sara Meerow & David M. Hondula & V. Kelly Turner & James C. Arnott, 2021. "Deploy heat officers, policies and metrics," Nature, Nature, vol. 598(7879), pages 29-31, October.
    10. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Patrick Sturgis & Ian Brunton-Smith & Jonathan Jackson, 2021. "Trust in science, social consensus and vaccine confidence," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 1528-1534, November.
    12. Pu‐yan Nie & Chan Wang & Yan Meng, 2019. "An analysis of environmental corporate social responsibility," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 384-393, June.
    13. Zongguo Wen & Yiling Xie & Muhan Chen & Christian Doh Dinga, 2021. "China’s plastic import ban increases prospects of environmental impact mitigation of plastic waste trade flow worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Anthony Waldron & Daniel C. Miller & Dave Redding & Arne Mooers & Tyler S. Kuhn & Nate Nibbelink & J. Timmons Roberts & Joseph A. Tobias & John L. Gittleman, 2017. "Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending," Nature, Nature, vol. 551(7680), pages 364-367, November.
    15. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "Author Correction: New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-2, December.
    16. Andrew W. Senior & Richard Evans & John Jumper & James Kirkpatrick & Laurent Sifre & Tim Green & Chongli Qin & Augustin Žídek & Alexander W. R. Nelson & Alex Bridgland & Hugo Penedones & Stig Petersen, 2020. "Improved protein structure prediction using potentials from deep learning," Nature, Nature, vol. 577(7792), pages 706-710, January.
    17. Felicia Keesing & Lisa K. Belden & Peter Daszak & Andrew Dobson & C. Drew Harvell & Robert D. Holt & Peter Hudson & Anna Jolles & Kate E. Jones & Charles E. Mitchell & Samuel S. Myers & Tiffany Bogich, 2010. "Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 468(7324), pages 647-652, December.
    18. Choe, Jongmook, 2008. "Income inequality and crime in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 31-33, October.
    19. Miriam Kasztura & Aude Richard & Nefti-Eboni Bempong & Dejan Loncar & Antoine Flahault, 2019. "Cost-effectiveness of precision medicine: a scoping review," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(9), pages 1261-1271, December.
    20. Virginia Gewin, 2021. "How to include Indigenous researchers and their knowledge," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7841), pages 315-317, January.
    21. E. M. Fischer & S. Sippel & R. Knutti, 2021. "Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 689-695, August.
    22. Kel Dummett, 2006. "Drivers for Corporate Environmental Responsibility (CER)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 375-389, August.
    23. Brendan Maher & Richard Van Noorden, 2021. "How the COVID pandemic is changing global science collaborations," Nature, Nature, vol. 594(7863), pages 316-319, June.
    24. Paul D. Williams & Manoj M. Joshi, 2013. "Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 644-648, July.
    25. Elizabeth Gibney, 2019. "Quantum gold rush: the private funding pouring into quantum start-ups," Nature, Nature, vol. 574(7776), pages 22-24, October.
    26. John Nkengasong, 2020. "Let Africa into the market for COVID-19 diagnostics," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7805), pages 565-565, April.
    27. Pickett, Kate E. & Wilkinson, Richard G., 2015. "Income inequality and health: A causal review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 316-326.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bratanova, Alexandra, 2023. "Analysis of Australian business and research specialisation in antimicrobial resistance technology," MPRA Paper 118699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Florian Wätzold & Bartosz Popiela & Jonas Mayer, 2024. "Methodology for AI-Based Search Strategy of Scientific Papers: Exemplary Search for Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles in the Semantic Scholar Database," Publications, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Sanderson, Conrad & Karimi, Sarvnaz & Bratanova, Alexandra & Naughtin, Claire, 2023. "Artificial intelligence adoption in the physical sciences, natural sciences, life sciences, social sciences and the arts and humanities: A bibliometric analysis of research publications from 1960-2021," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Ashley Rattenbury & Matthew B. Ruby, 2023. "Perceptions of the Benefits and Barriers to Vegetarian Diets and the Environmental Impact of Meat-Eating," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Browne, Geoffrey R. & Hürlimann, Anna C. & March, Alan & Bush, Judy & Warren-Myers, Georgia & Moosavi, Sareh, 2024. "Better policy to support climate change action in the built environment: A framework to analyse and design a policy portfolio," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin Zhang & Jason Rohr & Ruina Cui & Yusi Xin & Lixia Han & Xiaona Yang & Shimin Gu & Yuanbao Du & Jing Liang & Xuyu Wang & Zhengjun Wu & Qin Hao & Xuan Liu, 2022. "Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Mengmeng Cui & Filipa Ferreira & Tze Kwan Fung & José Saldanha Matos, 2021. "Tale of Two Cities: How Nature-Based Solutions Help Create Adaptive and Resilient Urban Water Management Practices in Singapore and Lisbon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Bratanova, Alexandra & Schleiger, Emma & Brosnan, A, 2020. "Global trade and investment megatrends," MPRA Paper 113240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Georgios Tsantopoulos & Aristotelis C. Papageorgiou & Evangelia Karasmanaki, 2021. "COVID-19: An Outcome of Biodiversity Loss or a Conspiracy? Investigating the Attitudes of Environmental Students," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Raquel Toste & Adriano Vasconcelos & Luiz Paulo de Freitas Assad & Luiz Landau, 2024. "Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil’s Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(8), pages 7845-7869, June.
    6. Avinash Kaur & Harshit Sosan Lakra & Rajib Shaw & Sameer Ali, 2025. "Pathways to enhanced microscale coastal flood risk assessment amid changing climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(15), pages 17201-17251, August.
    7. Chen, Zhenshan & Towe, Charles & He, Xi, 2025. "Heterogeneous flood zone effects on coastal housing prices - Risk signal and mandatory costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. World Bank, 2023. "Somalia Climate Risk Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 40076, The World Bank Group.
    9. Luke J. Jenkins & Ivan D. Haigh & Paula Camus & Douglas Pender & Jenny Sansom & Rob Lamb & Hachem Kassem, 2023. "The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1761-1797, January.
    10. Blanco, Esther & Baier, Alexandra & Holzmeister, Felix & Jaber-Lopez, Tarek & Struwe, Natalie, 2022. "Substitution of social sustainability concerns under the Covid-19 pandemic," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Rosemary A. McFarlane & Adrian C. Sleigh & Anthony J. McMichael, 2013. "Land-Use Change and Emerging Infectious Disease on an Island Continent," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, June.
    12. Xueyang Liu & Xiaoxing Liu, 2021. "Can Financial Development Curb Carbon Emissions? Empirical Test Based on Spatial Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    13. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Stephanie A. Siehr & Minmin Sun & José Luis Aranda Nucamendi, 2022. "Blue‐green infrastructure for climate resilience and urban multifunctionality in Chinese cities," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), September.
    15. Michaël Goujon & Olivier Santoni & Laurent Wagner, 2022. "The Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index computed at the sub-national level," Working Papers hal-03672203, HAL.
    16. Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Fabbri, Giorgio & Schubert, Katheline, 2021. "Prevention and mitigation of epidemics: Biodiversity conservation and confinement policies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    18. Hasselwander, Marc & Bigotte, Joao F. & Antunes, Antonio P. & Sigua, Ricardo G., 2022. "Towards sustainable transport in developing countries: Preliminary findings on the demand for mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) in Metro Manila," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 501-518.
    19. Aishwarya Narendr & S. Vinay & Bharath Haridas Aithal & Sutapa Das, 2022. "Multi-dimensional parametric coastal flood risk assessment at a regional scale using GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(7), pages 9569-9597, July.
    20. Yong Jee KIM & Brigitte WALDORF & Juan SESMERO, 2020. "Relocation, Retreat, and the Rising Sea Level: A Simulation of Aggregate Outcomes in Escambia County, Florida," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 31-43.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.